Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If it does, it will be a very interesting teaser possibility.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you going to tease it to and why?

craig

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Your rhetoric's a little hyperbolic for an statistic modeller lol Anyway, I could see the Pats winning by 30 or 3. It's only a 1 unit play in my system so I don't have strong feelings about it either way.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Why are you varying your bet size? I can give you a mathematical argument why all your bets shoul dbe the same size and as big as possible.

In response to my rhetoric, I am a big pats fan and I jsu tfeel they are gonig to win this game. The feel howver, is wrong all of the time. I don't start betting NFL games until week 3 anyway. Same thing with NCAAF. I still feel and have evidence of teh pats winning this game by at least ten points.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If it does, it will be a very interesting teaser possibility.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you going to tease it to and why?

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Might make a few small teasers with it, matching it with GB+9.......... Washington -.5 ......... Indy +3 and Philly +4.5 would all be considered. as for the why, well im not sure, but I would consider doing it anyways

Ken

PS- I never said I was good at this.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you varying your bet size?

[/ QUOTE ]

As discussed before, less exposure to larger variances. I could bet 3 games a week or I could bet 15. Incidentally, few of my big unit plays come within the first 4 weeks of the the season so I can understand waiting until week 3 to start betting.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your rhetoric's a little hyperbolic for an statistic modeller

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. Doesn't sound much like a regression model to me.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I saw GB +3 and i figured there must be something I don't know about that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Green Bay (since Favre has been QB) has been terrible in Detroit. Add to that a HIGHLY suspect defense and the first changes to the offensive line in at least three years and this seems like a reasonable line.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pats are gonig to murder the raiders. Remember last year when the pats won the super bowl and the raiders were awful. Neither team has changed that much in the off season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Save this crap. The Raiders added the best WR in the game, and a highly touted RB.

The Pats have lost a numnber of players including one of the team's leaders in Teddy Brusci.

The Pats may very well "murder" the Raiders, but try and provide some analysis that is different from what we hear at the bar.

-SC

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

GB+3 looks like a sucker bet to me. Avoid totally unless you feel Lions weren't trying last night.

Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Pats may very well "murder" the Raiders, but try and provide some analysis that is different from what we hear at the bar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.