Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

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I do think many gutshuts call for one bet here but not 2 since they don't consider it's a small pot

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whether they call or not doesn't matter. it is a mistake and we want them making that mistake. and in this small of a pot, i offer the suggestion that it would be okay to let them make that mistake.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

grunchin'

flop: great flop (no flush draws) raise/cap - I think you're ahead and you should raise for value and protection and cap for value.

turn: not a great card, but you're still probably best - Definitely bet, but I'm not sure the correct move if you had faced a raise. In the heat of it, I'm sure I'd bet/call, but I'd think you could still re-raise for value here.

River: That looks like a bad card. Can't defend anymore. If you bet here will a worse hand fold and a better hand raise? If so, then check/call might be best (although flop aggression may have made the river a non-issue.)

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

Then lets give them the chance to make the mistake for twice the amount of money.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do think many gutshuts call for one bet here but not 2 since they don't consider it's a small pot

[/ QUOTE ]

whether they call or not doesn't matter. it is a mistake and we want them making that mistake. and in this small of a pot, i offer the suggestion that it would be okay to let them make that mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

[ QUOTE ]
Then lets give them the chance to make the mistake for twice the amount of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

and here's what you said: [ QUOTE ]
I do think many gutshuts call for one bet here but not 2

[/ QUOTE ] so which is it? are they calling 2 or not?

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

grunch

you have to raise this flop - bottom 2 is a strong hand here, but you need to protect it.

after that, i like how you played it.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

I thought it went like this -
When you have a vulnerable hand you want the pot now so raise. If opponent play correctly you win, if they play incorrectly and bet you win more than your fair share in the long run. So both are +EV.

If you call and they stay in it may be +EV but if you are outdrawn because they made a small -EV mistake you have just made a big EV mistake and lost what could have been yours.

So rather than +3BB for winning the smaller pot you are now -2 or 3BB for a net loss of 5 or more BB. You have just wiped out the profit for 200 hands.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

I don't think they're calling two very often. However I would much rather have one player call two than two call one.

You seem to imply everyone will call one, which is not what I want to happen on this flop. Our hand is not strong enough to allow so many hands to keep drawing here.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

Also the amount of people in the pot is more reason for me to raise the flop. If it was just HU I could see waiting till the turn to raise. But with 4 people each having, say ~5 outs, we just don't know which cards are safe and which aren't.

Also with lower two pair we still run the risk of 'improving' to something like J's & 7's on the turn and again on the river.

Re: Big blind crap turns into two pair
 

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i know everyone is saying to raise the flop...which isn't a bad idea really, but do we really need to in this small pot?

gutshots shouldn't be calling. i guess we may fold an OESD, which would be good. but i would think most people are drawing ~5 outs, which the pot is too small to be calling.

just a question.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB is the likely turn bettor, so we're probably going to have to face everyone with 2 bets eventually. We might make more by letting them call the flop for 1 bet when they'd fold for 2, but we might get called anyway and there's a decent chance that a strong J (or unlikely overpair) will 3-bet, and there are a few possible draws out.

Also, there aren't any reasonable ways for our opponents to improve to second best hands unless they're calling with no pair and/or a BD draw, and our hand is too vulnerable to slowplay to the river -- any J or pair/PP >7 has at least 8 outs on the turn.

Good things just seem more likely to happen when we raise the flop. We're probably being called down by SB at the very least, which is an unterrible outcome.