Re: Game theory football
 

In the few times i have actually played this, i have done well because of what you said. People are pretty predictable.

Minor \"extra out\" for 2 point attempt first
 

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T
If Team A goes for two instead, it will make it 45% of the time. Then it will go for one at the next touchdown, for a 98% chance of victory. 55% of the time it will miss, then go for two on the second touchdown, for a 45% chance of overtime and a 22.5% chance of victory. 45%*98% + 55%*22.5% = 56% chance of winning.

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If 2 points are made and the 1 point is then missed they still have overtime to win it so there is an additional .45 * .02 * .5 wins = 0.45%