Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

While knowing your game and sticking to it is fine, I do have a problem with it. It never allows any room for improvment. Taking shots at higher levels does allow you to eventually adjust (along with lots of reading/studying/practicing/etc).

If making quick cash or never advancing is your goal, then staying put is more than fine.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add, I'm much better than 12% at the $22s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say you're really a 20% player at the 22's. Over 1350 SnGs, you have about a 3% chance of running this bad.

Just a random fact that you can interpret as you will.

eastbay

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

Ok, so far the responses to this thread are that maybe I'm not a winning player, or at least not much of one. I posted this because I know with 100% certainty, that I'm at least a decent winning player for $33s and below, and that it IS possible to run this poorly over a large sample.

There will be some people here who have been running hot for quite a while. I remember degen had 1k+ $33s with a 30%ish ROI. Curtains hit 36% at the $215s over 700 sngs, etc etc etc. We all know 500 sngs is nothing. 1k doesn't really mean that much. Is it so absurd that a decent player could run so poorly over 1800-1900 sngs? It really isn't, considering the effect a 40 buyin swing had on my previous 1k $22 results.

Look. After 1k $22s I had 21% ROI. The fact that just a 42ish buyin drop causes a drop a 8% or whatever drop in ROI just shows how little a 1k sng sample is.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so far the responses to this thread are that maybe I'm not a winning player, or at least not much of one. I posted this because I know with 100% certainty, that I'm at least a decent winning player for $33s and below, and that it IS possible to run this poorly over a large sample.

There will be some people here who have been running hot for quite a while. I remember degen had 1k+ $33s with a 30%ish ROI. Curtains hit 36% at the $215s over 700 sngs, etc etc etc. We all know 500 sngs is nothing. 1k doesn't really mean that much. Is it so absurd that a decent player could run so poorly over 1800-1900 sngs? It really isn't, considering the effect a 40 buyin swing had on my previous 1k $22 results.

Look. After 1k $22s I had 21% ROI. The fact that just a 42ish buyin drop causes a drop a 8% or whatever drop in ROI just shows how little a 1k sng sample is.

[/ QUOTE ]

who are u trying to convince? holla

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

I've run into plenty of these sorts of situations.

What is the chance that a 55% capper I follow loses 20 units at the beginning of a season? What is the chance that a friend misses 2 weeks of betting were my picks go 18-1? What is the chance that I miss posting my picks at ssb (a website) for those 2 weeks? What is the chance that I miss posting twice as many wins as losses? What is the chance that all the sports I bet on lose at the same time yet all finish the season as comfortable winners? What is the chance that I start betting just as a handicapper runs poorly? I could go on and on.

I have no doubts about my skill. I don't think I'm gods gift or anything, just that I'm a good player for my stakes.

You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly. Maybe I'm just unlucky enough to be one of those people.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

I'm just trying to point out that this could be variance, and noone replying to the thread seems to accept this as a reasonable possibility.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

i duno man.. i know this last post was directed at easty, but it really really really sounds to me like you are trying to convince YOURSELF. right now, instead of doing that.. i challenge you to pick 4 HHs that you have a win in. no1 thinks to look at the HHs they won.. but these are most important. look at the hands u doubled up on, look at the steals you were making.. were they correct? did u get lucky to win? its not about results. pick apart your game tongiht. it will make you a better player. holla

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]

You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just explain to me what 3% means? Just checking.

eastbay

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i duno man.. i know this last post was directed at easty, but it really really really sounds to me like you are trying to convince YOURSELF. right now, instead of doing that.. i challenge you to pick 4 HHs that you have a win in. no1 thinks to look at the HHs they won.. but these are most important. look at the hands u doubled up on, look at the steals you were making.. were they correct? did u get lucky to win? its not about results. pick apart your game tongiht. it will make you a better player. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I always look at the hand histories that I won when I am running bad.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just explain to me what 3% means? Just checking.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

3% also means that out of every 100 people 3 of them will try to teach you what 3% means. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]