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-   -   high implied odds? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=313133)

Padawan Learner 08-11-2005 05:45 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You still have 3 players yet to act. Do you really want to take the chance of betting and having it raised or possibly reraised when all you have is a gutshot and weak overcards? Your flop bet will take this pot down very rarely as some of them will have overcards to the board and will call or raise

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Sure with 3 players left to act it isn't picture perfect betting situation, and if the players left to act are aggressive (he said 1 tag and 1 passive), then I am all for a check. I was just making a point that betting this fairly ragged rainbow flop with 2 (albeit weak) overcards and a gutshot should probably be considered. There are other positive things to come out of a flop bet besides taking it down on the flop. But...

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Checking in this spot and waiting to see what develops after you act is automatic.

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I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

Aaron W. 08-11-2005 05:49 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was just making a point that betting this fairly ragged rainbow flop with 2 (albeit weak) overcards and a gutshot should probably be considered. There are other positive things to come out of a flop bet besides taking it down on the flop.

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Can you give a few examples and show how they work here?

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But...

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Checking in this spot and waiting to see what develops after you act is automatic.

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I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

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It's not automatic because someone says it's automatic.

droolie 08-11-2005 06:04 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]


I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

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Whatever dude. Play your way. Bet those ragged boards into a large filed with nothing and spew your stack all you want. Some decisions aren't close, this is one of them.

Hojglad 08-11-2005 07:27 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever dude. Play your way. Bet those ragged boards into a large filed with nothing and spew your stack all you want. Some decisions aren't close, this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Let's say he was the SB - I might fold T2 in this situation if I was the BB and the SB bets into me. Wouldn't that be worth a small bet?

eviljeff 08-11-2005 07:33 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
*grunch*

fold it dude. 7:1 ain't good enough, especially since you could be drawing to a split pot.

droolie 08-11-2005 08:29 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]

Why? Let's say he was the SB - I might fold T2 in this situation if I was the BB and the SB bets into me. Wouldn't that be worth a small bet?

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Raising to protect your overcard outs seems like a waste to me. I don't think a flop bet will get anybody to fold a pair or even overcards very often at all. Yes it might happen but you are far more likely to wind up being raised by a LP bettor. You might only get called in two spots but has that really improved your winning chances that much? You are still OOP, with nothing and have no idea if either of your overcard outs are any good at this point. You really want the gutshot in which case you will likely beat all takers so you don't really need folds here.

In this spot with about 5 outs I prefer to hope for a free look at the turn (yes ragged flops like this will sometimes get checked through) or at most pay exactly one bet to try to hit my gutshot. I can easily fold this longshot if it's two bets back to me.

The worst case scenario IMO is betting and seeing it raised (and possibly 3-bet) behind you. You will have to call a raise and will wind up paying two bets for your gutshot draw (or fold to a 3-bet and pay a SB for nothing). This scenario will happen quite often when you bet this flop.

I see many examples of needless aggression in this forum. Betting into 4 players with nothing but a gutshot and tenuous overcards just because the board is ragged is such an example.

Aaron W. 08-11-2005 08:58 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever dude. Play your way. Bet those ragged boards into a large filed with nothing and spew your stack all you want. Some decisions aren't close, this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Let's say he was the SB - I might fold T2 in this situation if I was the BB and the SB bets into me. Wouldn't that be worth a small bet?

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Tell me how the T2 example is somehow representative of things that might actually happen.

macdaddy991 08-11-2005 09:22 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*

fold it dude. 7:1 ain't good enough, especially since you could be drawing to a split pot.

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With hero's T out, and the fact that almost any ace will pay off a lower straight, 7-1 is definately worth the peel.

Hojglad 08-11-2005 11:16 PM

Re: high implied odds?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I didn't realize that this check was automatic. I stand corrected.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whatever dude. Play your way. Bet those ragged boards into a large filed with nothing and spew your stack all you want. Some decisions aren't close, this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Let's say he was the SB - I might fold T2 in this situation if I was the BB and the SB bets into me. Wouldn't that be worth a small bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how the T2 example is somehow representative of things that might actually happen.

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I was merely pointing out a hypothetical situation when a bet might actually help. If I was in the BB, and I had T2 on this flop, and it was shorthanded, and the SB (let's say it was our hero with T6) decided to bet into me, I would fold. It's just not worth it in a small, shorthanded pot. This is clearly not the situation in this hand. Also, as Droolie rightfully points out, there are way too many people in this hand to make bluffing a gutshot even a decent choice. I just wanted him to elaborate on his viewpoint instead of giving the "it's not even close" as an answer.

J. Stew 08-12-2005 12:39 AM

Re: high implied odds?
 
How much value are you giving the tens in this spot? Two . . . two and a half outs?


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