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-   -   just sold nflx at 21 yesterday (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=308580)

Sniper 08-09-2005 10:33 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
Benny,

To be honest I think you missed his point, and mine!

My point was that whether the answers to his questions were favorable or unfavorable toward netflix, it still didn't tell you whether it was a good time to invest in netflix or not.

To explain the point further, we can use extreme examples... if all the answers were favorable to netflix but the stock was selling for $1000/share, it would not be a good time to buy... and if all the answers were unfavorable to netflix but the stock was selling for .01/share, it might be a good time to buy.

Bottom line: You need to be able to put a relative value on the answers, before you know whether its a good buy or not, and his questions didn't do that.

wadea 08-09-2005 11:11 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
I can already tell you don't know what you're talking about, but I'll educate you anyway.

First, NFLX is already profitable, so as long as I'm renting DVDs tomorrow, it's a good investment today.

Second, I can't say about 10 years, but YES I will be renting DVDs in FIVE years. If you disagree, you haven't been paying attention and aren't familiar with the difficulties of video-on-demand (VOD).

Finally, Netflix has already entered into agreements - most notably with TiVo - to develop new VOD technologies and eventually enter the VOD market.

I don't have a problem with you disagreeing with NFLX as an investment, but that's the stupidest, smart-a$$iest arguement against NFLX I've ever heard.

If you want to argue it, here's some help. I'll give you the ingredients, you blend them into an arguement: AMZN, BBI, purchase.

As an interesting side note, do you know how NFLX's market capitalization compares to BBI's? Do you know how much debt each of them have?

-w.a.

Peter666 08-10-2005 12:06 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
I bought 10,000 shares of Netflix when the stock was down at 10.53. I sold it at 19.23 when it made its last jump weeks ago, not because I wanted to, but because I needed money for a vacation that I am currently on. I fully expect it to go to 30+ in the future.

I bought it because I liked the management who are innovative, forward thinking and able to adapt to all situations. Block Buster is a dying company with crap managment and without a future plan. The former group of managers will succeed at whatever business they apply their skills too, so people thinking DVDs will go out of business in 10 years are right, but if they think that the managers of NFLX are stupid enough to be in that business 10 years from now are stupidly wrong.

Also, I noticed some idiot financial "gurus" hyping Block Buster over Netflix (who incidentally owned lots of BBI stock...) despite the situation presented above. Naturally, I did the exact opposite of these idiots and profited nicely.

The only reason Netflix is not higher is because those same "gurus" are not hyping it. Well, those damn bastards can kiss their money bye bye while I am at my resort cavorting with Eastern European supermodels.

FishHooks 08-10-2005 12:43 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
I'm I'm not mistaken isn't this stock trading at 65+ times earnings, also with a small volume. I think its a good time to sell just looking at the numbers.

Paluka 08-10-2005 01:34 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
[ QUOTE ]
I bought 10,000 shares of Netflix when the stock was down at 10.53. I sold it at 19.23 when it made its last jump weeks ago, not because I wanted to, but because I needed money for a vacation that I am currently on. I fully expect it to go to 30+ in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Must be one helluva vacation.

wadea 08-10-2005 03:42 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
You're looking at the wrong numbers. People have been saying the same thing about Starbucks (and eBay and Amazon...) for years and look how that's turning out. Some stocks just always "seem" overpriced, but the price is reflecting future growth.

-w.a.

FishHooks 08-10-2005 07:05 PM

Re: just sold nflx at 21 yesterday
 
[ QUOTE ]
You're looking at the wrong numbers. People have been saying the same thing about Starbucks (and eBay and Amazon...) for years and look how that's turning out. Some stocks just always "seem" overpriced, but the price is reflecting future growth.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking about the same Amazon that dropped 92.7% and had a low of 5.51 in 2002? heh I think thats the one.

Eventually the market corrects itself, and so will those companies as well.


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