Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

"first off, is this guy a total donkey, meaning would he call that turn checkraise with a diamond draw? I'm guessing no, but a missed draw would fold to your push and it likely would beat 10 high if he called but I don't think that's likely."

Theoretically you know him as good as I know him, because I included all hands/facts I knew about him at that time at in my original post. However I understand that nearly nobody reads full posts (I dont do either).

In my opinion he is a tight, serious player, who can fold.
I dont know how his play changes against a LAG, but he was 4-tabling and its possible that he wont adjust too much.

If he would call with everything except a missed flush draw - I dont know. I'm neither very good at hand reading than at estimating people [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

All in all I agree with your analysis. The range of hands is the same, but I considered this hand interesting because I think he would fold everything except straight + full house + 3 of a kind there.

So its important to know how often he will have 99-JJ (or even a crazy played AA/KK ?) there. Would be cool if you put up some percentages, I have no real idea.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

It's really a mathematic exercise to give him a percentage of each hand based on hand distribution etc that I don't want to go into. Also, the fact that he called a huge turn checkraise skews these numbers in my opinion given the fact that he called. If I had to guess here i'd put him on something like

Missed diamonds - 5% (only because I don't think he calls that chckraise with them)
X-8 or X-5 of diamonds 20%
55,88 or a 4 - 25%
99-JJ & 66-77 - 25%
67 - 15%
23 - 5%
AA-QQ - 5% (only because I think he'd raise unless he was trapping)

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Great post.

Can't give you %, but I'm not pushing the river. The only thing he's folding is a missed flush draw imo.

Turn check/raise is the problem, it's setting of the BS detector. When you've got a low trips draw board and a flat caller on the flop, you don't check the turn if you have any kind of a hand. And then you make a big check raise into a weak turn bet...I put you squarely on overcards or stone bluffing at this point.

Because of this, I'm not pushing the river. Had you led the turn for the full pot I would't hesitate potting the river.

And I have no idea what he has, your guess is as good as mine.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Try it 50 times and you'll realize that it's extremely unprofitable. Trust me I've tried it alot and it is/ hopefully was one of my major leaks in my game. I play a very laggy game and have been slaughtering 200NL 6Max 4-tabling 9 PTBB/100 and the trick to playing good lag isn't trying to bluff at every paired board. It's to be willing to call their all-in bets on nonthreatening boards with top pair no kicker hands and rarely ever folding an overpair b/c their hand values get lowered extensively by your aggression. The reason Lag is so profitable is that it lowers you opponents hand values drastically and increases the number of bluffs they run against you --allowing normally unprofitable hands like QJo or 10 8o to become profitable while increasing the action you get on your big hands.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hand do you put him on, what hand do you honestly think he will call that river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's got an overpair (99-JJ) or he flopped a full house.

All-in-all, he's got something and if you are LAGing and he knows it you will be called on the river. check/fold.

And as others have said or indicated, only bluff like this when your image is real tight, and wait for big hands to be LAG with if your image is LAG. You will just lose money when you bluff with T2, get called down, and then try it again with T6.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

OK interesting analysis!
Here are the results:
I got afraid and had no idea what he had, he ultra-fast checked behind me (like the players who have the check-fold box on) and won the hand with JJ
Most of you knew what he had, I did not. After I saw his JJ I immediately thought "Damn you should have pushed"...