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-   -   a coin flip dilemma (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=307554)

alexd231232 08-04-2005 12:20 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
See that is the thing, you said it comes down to personal preference. But isnt there something more here, something that must tell you whether or not pushing here is the right move. Clearly one could wait for a better situation to arise in which they've made their hand and the win is inevitable, but that is a very optomistic attitude which may not pan out exactly as it should in the rest of the SNG.

cfjr2 08-04-2005 12:29 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
you could wait for a better hand that never comes which is why I lean towards push here, I am just personally unsure if you should do this this early in the tournament or wait.

I also consider that with the read you have on this guy you would need to wait for pocket Aces to dominate - any other pocket pair you are in the same situation (and if he has JJ-AA you wouldn't play him w/o AA either).

So do you wait to have a larger stack to play coin flip?
Do you wait until you are ITM to play coin flip?
Do you wait for him to be blinded to death waiting to get his big cards (which is all he plays)?

or

Do you take a chance to put yourself in a dominating position for the remainder of the early rounds?

I don't know what the expert position here is but as I said I lean towards taking the lead here.

Amid Cent 08-04-2005 12:31 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
You should take into consideration your skill level vs the rest of the table. If you think you are far better than the average player, then fold here and wait for a better chance to double up. If you think that you are on par, or slightly weaker than the rest of the table, use this chance to double up and take a big chip lead.

alexd231232 08-04-2005 12:32 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
Good point, i didnt really take skill level into it but that seems like it would be the deciding factor here. Thanks

Dallara 08-04-2005 01:04 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
I've had a similar situation come up a few times in the past few days. The situation is that it's level 1 of let's say a $22. You have all your chips. One player is shortstacked already, let's say he has t400. You open raise from middle position to t60 with a-k. All fold to BB who is the short stack. He moves in for t400. Do you call here and take a coinflip for half your stack or do you fold?

Given that you have an ace and a king, you're somewhat less likely to be up against AA or KK. Also, let's face it the guy who is shortstacked at level 1 is probably not a great player and could be doing this with anything.

I've generally folded in this situation. Given that winning only gets you to t1200 and losing cripples you badly, I felt this was the better play. Anyone feel you should gamble here? If he has t300 are you more likely to call? How about t200?

alexd231232 08-04-2005 03:21 PM

Re: a coin flip dilemma
 
If its 300 or less, i will certainly call. This is mainly because he is so short which implies that he's gonna be pushing with just about anything(KQ, JQ etc). I think it is worth it.


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