Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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standard


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Really? It was my one interesting hand of the night (probably because it was the only time I went all-in). I usually play limit and know what is standard there but am still learning with the no-limit so you will have to bear with me.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

It's a weird play preflop from a good playing villain. I really can't imagine any hands that I would min-re-raise out of the blinds. But whatever. I think you played it quite like a set so you should have tons of fequity. And if you get called, you have tons of outs. I like it.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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standard

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Really? It was my one interesting hand of the night (probably because it was the only time I went all-in). I usually play limit and know what is standard there but am still learning with the no-limit so you will have to bear with me.

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well, i was only half-serious. this is a good hand to raise with, especially with a tight image. a lot of the rest of the hand plays itself...you have to call the preflop minraise...the implied odds are too good. the flop hit you a little bit, so i like the delayed bluff here and in fact, you could be ahead of a missed AK/AQ. you have to call the flop and take it away from him if he showed weakness or if you improve. the turn push is the highest percentage way to win the hand if you're behind, which is what it looks like when he fires the second shot on the turn, and you'll win a good percentage of the time even when he calls with a better hand.

your hand is pretty well disguised. i'm certain he has no idea what you have. after your push he's putting you on JJ or 99 or AA/KK played trickily.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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QQ-AA occurs 85% of the time and he calls 50% and folds 50%

Calls

EV = $1802*.304 + $0*.696 = $612.68

Folds

EV = $1202*1 = $1202

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.5 + $612.68*.5 = $907.34


JJ occurs15% and he calls 100% and folds 0% (Too high? Should JJ = 7.5%, AK = 7.5%, QQ-AA = 85%)

Calls

EV = $1802*.152+$0*.848 = $273.90

Folds

EV = $1202

JJ EV is $273.90 * 1 +$1202 * 0 = $273.90


Total EV = $907.34*.85 + $273.90*.15 = $812.35, So I lose $87.68 if he calls 50% of the time.


Now if he calls 25% and folds 75% with QQ-AA and still calls 100% of the time with JJ

QQ-AA EV is $1202*.75 + $612.68*.25 = $1054.67, So I gain $154.67

Total EV = $1054.67 * .85 + $273.90 * .15 = $937.56, So I gain $37.56

Calculating the QQ-AA call fold ratio to break even

Total EV = [$1202*X + $612.68*(1-X)]*.85 + [$273.90]*.15 = 0

X = .689, So if I estimate that he will fold call 31.1% of the time or less I should move my money into the middle of the pot. I was surprised how close it was either way. Even if he calls 100% of the time I only lose $338.14. This analysis also doesn’t take into account that I don’t think that he would play JJ in this way. I doubt he would be betting the pot on a draw less board on the flop and turn with the nuts, but maybe. I would appreciate any feedback on my analysis.

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good effort, however i think you may have muddled up a starting assumption or two.

remember, folding defines 0EV

check here for the skeleton:

check the first response to this thread

fim

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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My first week of no-limit play. I have 900 behind

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Priceless

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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Quote:
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My first week of no-limit play. I have 900 behind


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Priceless

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In my defense I started with $300 and when the game got tuff I left.

Re: Sometimes I just do and don\'t know why
 

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Does his min-raise preflop tell you anything about his hand based on previous actions by him?

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We had only had a few orbits at this time together. I found that he was a strong player later. At the time I put him on AA. I think any other hand he would have made a larger preflop raise.

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I'm pretty dead set on AA as well, that's the classic AA raise. Don't want to drive anyone away but also wants to invite the call beings it was only $20 more to you.

I don't know how tight this guy is, but I think you made a good enough play to push him off, by representing possibly a set of 9s or Js.