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-   -   fold/call with four to a flush (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=296039)

AngelicPenguin 07-19-2005 05:02 PM

Re: fold/call with four to a flush
 
Really? I read it as two callers total. Now one is betting with one behind.

07-20-2005 05:55 AM

Re: fold/call with four to a flush
 
As I noted in my follow-up post, there was one guy to act after me and 10 big bets in the pot. I guess this makes the decision much harder to make as I might have been raised after I called. Do you think Ed Millers advice extends as far as making a dangerous call like this?

07-21-2005 06:46 AM

Re: fold/call with four to a flush
 
The more I think about this hand, the more interesting I think it is as I think its quite easy to narrow down your opponents range of hands (not that I was able to do this on the spot).
When I got called on the flop it could mean quite a few different hands, a straight draw, flush draw, gutshot, any pair. Now when I got called on the turn it rules out the flush draw cos I would have been raised right? maybe someone with Q-J picked up a Q pair to go with their open straight draw, K-9 hoping for a jack, same for A-10. Somone might even be playing A-x loosely, although Ad is definitely continueing and my main worry.

OK so Jd comes on river and UTG bets into me, his range of made hands are: some variation of 2 pair, Q-J, K-J, any 9 for an ace or King high straight/straight flush, Maybe A-x( I would put this as least likely though cos my opponents were not loose) where x is a diamond or Ad-x for his rather handy royal flush.

So it seems to me that more than 50% of his likely hands would NOT have a diamond because all the high card diamonds except the ace have all been used. So if this was heads up I now see this as a clear call, but there's still one opponent to act.

A raise here could cause LP to fold a low diamond or Ace high straight. Maybe LP folds and SB also folds his low diamond.

So you are 3:1 underdog to win and raising risks 2 bets to win 10. It only needs to work 1 in 5 times to be a good move, so we got good odds here.

It seems to me then that this is a clear raise situation, folding to a reraise.
Any comments on how I've worked this out, feel free to correct me if I'm off the mark.


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