Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

67/33 cannot be right, BTW, because that would mean you'd be folding AK and this is where the ICM breaks down totally.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Yeah, I figured something like 63/37 would be it - a bit worse than 2:1. Although its been a long time since I thought about preflop equity and hand range matchups.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
I mean neither of us has done the math

[/ QUOTE ]

True. That's why adanthar is here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

"Hero" is getting just slightly better than 2 to 1 odds. From a cEV perspective you could justify calling with almost anything. But this is obviously a time when cEV does not equal $EV and the difference in payouts from one place to another is pretty big.

There is $224,500 left to be played for since everyone is guaranteed $10k. Let's use the old stack size divided by chips in play equals equity formula. There are a total of 6,242,500 chips in play.

If the hero calls and wins, he'll have 783,680. If he calls and loses, he's out in 10th place (and receives no equity since we've already accounted for 8th place money). If he folds, he'll have 343,840.

The equity of calling and winning is $28,183 (783,680/6242500*$224,500). The equity of calling and losing is $0. The equity of folding is $12,365.

Using simple algebra with x equal to the probability that we call and win:

28,183x=12,365
x=12,365/28,183
x=43.9%

So we need to win 43.9% of the time to make this a NEUTRAL decision. And with Jason's reputation and huge stack I would say that any two cards is a likely range to put him on.

So the minimum hands to call with (the probability of winning exceeds - albeit in some cases just barely - 43.9%) includes:

22+
A2+
K2+
Q2+
J2+
T2s+
T5o+
95s+
96o+
85s+
87o
76s

Obviously this is predicated on the range of hands being any two cards. Tightening up that range would change our calling hands substantially. But I would personally be comfortable with any two as the range.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
KTo works out to exactly 60/40 against a random hand. It's not as terrible a call as I thought, but its razor thin. The posters that are saying it's an easy call are way off.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i beg to differ. do you see why? holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Personally, intuitively I think that his call is fine. I was obviously pushing every hand, but a few times there was the occasional QQ or AT I pushed as well, so it truly was any hand. KTs is definitely ahead of my range, hehe. That being said, there were a few other shortish stacks at the table so by folding KT he definitely would've had a decent chance of moving up in the money. Whether that was the most +EV is another story. I really dont mind the call, although I might've picked a different spot if I was in his shoes.

-Jason

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

The equity of folding is higher than you think.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i beg to differ. do you see why? holla

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
The equity of folding is higher than you think.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't say that without backing it up. I've done the math. You can certainly argue that using stacks/chips in play isn't a good approximation but it's a fairly standard way of calculating $EV.