A Twist!
 

Hey all,

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Live 5/10 at the Wynn.

Passed to me (~2k) in MP and I wing out 30 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Called by button (~1400) and BB (very good player who reads me well, has ~2k).

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks. I check. Button bets a small handful, which ends up being 120 or so. BB calls. I call.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. I bet 250. BB insta-calls. BB thinks for a little bit and calls.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB quick-checks. I move all in.

Justification for my play to come later if I can manage to concoct some sort of convincing argument. Otherwise just the results.

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If it affects the discussion and/or what The Ocho's proper play was on each street, I was the BB in this hand.

Also, incidentally, the flop was:

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

And, I remember the button being a little deeper (a little shy of 2k), but I could be wrong about that.

I'll give my thoughts and share what I held later.

ML4L

Re: Smoke Screens (Wynn 5/10)
 

My problem with this hand Ocho is that you raise preflop and then check and overcall a bet. In my view, out of all the actions you can take on the flop, this one reveals the most about your hand. 5-10 with 200bb I think I'm betting this flop 100% of the time when I raised preflop, and I'm not sure why you wouldn't. Worse draws are going to call, and even if you get CR you are plenty deep where its unliklely someone's going to blow you off your hand.

Your flop play really screams draw or big hand (with a draw about 2-5x more likely in my book knowing your play). If im ML4L in this spot I am spooked. But the thing is, ML4L can probably define your hand pretty good into either monster or draw, so he can continue with something like top pair. Your river play is weird too. Given the fact that ML4L is the BB, I wouldn't give him a spot to make any sort of laydown. Plus, the button could've been drawing to a flush in which case you end up getting the money in anyway, likely.

I'm fairly sure here that ML4L doesnt have a draw, but its hard to tell what actually happened in the turn on this hand. If you put a gun to my head I'd wager ML4L had something like AQ AK and button called with his lame ass flush.

Thats my view on the action,
-Jason

Re: A Twist!
 

oh. since you're in the hand, ocho needs to fold pf, and leave the table.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

looks to be interesting...

Re: A Twist!
 

my guesses for ml4l's (btw, what does ml4l stand for?) hand are AK and possibly A3s. it's possible he was going to stop and go the turn, but changed his mind based on a read/tell.

the revised flop gives him the possibility to have a really big draw (4d5d) though, can he and play it this way?

on the flop the pot is 90 bucks and he checks and calls 120. this is problematic, because I said before I would think it's weird for mike to play a drawing hand in this position and he has to be fairly certain he'll either scare everyone into checking the turn or extract a lot of $$ if he hits on the turn.

on the turn, the pot is 450 on the turn and when the action gets back to him there's 950 in the pot and it's 250 to him, so it's clearly a +EV call if all his outs are clean (hard to say).

on the river, it would be very odd for him to take any line that involves checking other than check fold. my conclusion is that there's little to no chance ml4l plays 4d5d this way from this position, because of the flop play.

--turnipmonster

Re: A Twist!
 

Mike,

not to hijack this thread, but you should repost in that thread you started about all the games spread in Vegas....curious about the details....


FWIW, I would've thought there's a 100% chance that Ocho has the nuts by the way he played this hand.....

Re: Smoke Screens (Wynn 5/10)
 

I think ML4L has A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the Button has 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button instcalled and ML4L folded.

Basically on the flop if ML4L has a good read on you he calls with what is likely to be the best hand and if it isn't he has runner runner outs - noting the fact that with the button in with his two cards whatever they are he could be position betting with not much but he doesn't want to check raise because you still have to act, and he's not expecting you to check raise when he has called.

On the turn, ML4L has picked up his backdoor draw but he probably doesn't like the fact that both of you are still in, but the diamond didn't hit and he thinks he has implied odds against the hands that beat him? Though he probably thinks his hand is best anyway.

The river explains itself with the above logic. Though I'm probably totally off.

Re: A Twist!
 

[ QUOTE ]
.

the revised flop gives him the possibility to have a really big draw (4d5d) though, can he and play it this way?


[/ QUOTE ]on the old flop, this draw was just as big. and perhaps, better, bc the hand would be more disguised.

Re: Smoke Screens (Wynn 5/10)
 

Im going to go out on a limb and say that TheOcho won this hand

Re: A Twist!
 

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FWIW, I would've thought there's a 100% chance that Ocho has the nuts by the way he played this hand.....

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So would ml4l, so would I, so would many. But the button was weak enough player that he most likely would not.

Re: Smoke Screens (Wynn 5/10)
 

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Im going to go out on a limb and say that TheOcho won this hand

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i think thats a good guess