Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

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if this was 10 handed, i'm calling AKs and folding AKo

6 handed, calling both

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I think I'm folding both for 4 cold, depending on on the profiles of the 3 and 4 bettors.

Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

3 ways? How many players are sitting?

This is an easy fold, AKs or AKo. You're behind in at least one spot, and given the stats, you're behind in two or three with your worst fear being, of course, AA and KK, which at least one of them has.

Suppose you have AKs.

I don't like entering in a hand for 4-bets against three other tight players and not even confident flopping an A or a K! You have (a) little fold equity with the swelled pot (b) little hand (c) and no initiative. The only positive going for you is position. Your hand is reduced to flush and broadway values. You need to pick your spots, and I think are better spots to put your money in. Save your four bets. Just sit back and watch the fireworks. Make sure to note the showdown cards.

Garland

Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

I haven't yet learned what those PokerTracker figures means, but guess this means three pretty tight-passive players?

Anyway, how tight passive?

Hero is getting 3.33-to-1 (or slightly better with $10-15 blinds) on his call here. This is assuming blinds folds and rest call (likely). If one of the blinds come along, even better. It's "only" the times he's up against AA - or KK with aces on average less live than normally he's not making money here. AKs is 35% against KK with no other known cards, and he's making up for that with the multiway pot (although of course, a very small amount of the time 99 will beat AKs even when AKs has improved enough to beat KK or QQ).

Also, in the "family pot" situation which arises if hero calls here, combined with hero's decent pot-odds, combined with the chances of his pair outs being slim to none, being suited adds a massive difference. Hero will flop the nut flush draw once in every eight attempt, and quite a lot of these will include a Q-J, Q-T or J-T straight draw combination or the out of winning with the ace.

It may be EV-, but not much unless hero is 90% sure that AA (not AA or KK) is out there. How would the players in question, with their stats, play if they held JJ, QQ and KK respectively here? Or what about JJ, QQ and QQ? How much EV would hero have in a spot like that?

lars

Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

I was bored, so I came up with hand ranges for the 3 opponents:

Open-raiser: 88-AA, A8s-AKs, ATo-AKo, KJs-KQs, QJs
3-bettor: 99-AA, AJs-AKs, AQo-AKo
4-bettor: QQ-AA, AKo, AKs

For the open-raiser, there are 97 combinations, 9 are AK, 3 are KK, and 3 are AA. The 3-bettor has 54 combinations, also 9 AK, 3 KK, and 3 AA. The capper has 21 combinations. The open-raiser is 3/97 to have aces, next opponent 3/54, and final opponent 3/21. Given all this, without weighting the various hands, we are going to be facing aces 21.6% of the time. We are going to be up against KK or AA 40.4% of the time. And KK, AA, or AK a whopping 82.6% of the time.

Lastly, the guy capping might just call with QQ and AK in this spot, so we need to give more weight to AA and KK, which makes things even bleaker for the hero. If you assume people are twice as likely to cap with KK/AA than QQ/AK, the likelihood of being against AA jumps to 28.9% of the time.

I'm not really a math guy so if anyone notices any errors feel free to point them out.

Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

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3 ways.

initial pf raiser is 18/11/2
pf 3bettor is 15/9/1
pf cold capper is 16/9/1.

4 cold to me on the butotn w/ AKo, i fold.

what if there was somebody who called 4 cold before me...do you fold AKs.

what about AKs right in that spot? i still fold it b/c i dont like the price...but w/ 4 people i dunno...4.x:1 starts to look better and better.

-Barron

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You didn't say how many hands and where the raises come from. In any case, it seems I've been in this situtation many times and almost always folded, and felt comfortable with that decision even when I see that I was in good shape preflop. In a way I think the key street is the flop because even though the pot is huge calling while drawing dead or near dead or folding 6 outs are all on the table, and despite the preflop action, if you chose to be there, then there's typically significant doubt about what to do. IE, if you called, then you must doubt you are dominated, and how many flops can change your mind? The hands you beat will be worried by overcards that hit you, and when you hit your cards you can't get away if they are better.

Re: woah...folded ako pf...what about AKs...
 

Good information. I don't think I've ever folded AK preflop in ring games, although I have occasionally in tourneys. But I've never been faced with this profile. I think Choppy has it about right, to some extent it depends on whether the 3rd guy will ever call 3-cold, preferring to cap to get the blinds out (and just possibly the utg raiser). But I'd be tending towards a fold in the hand as posted.

AKs no different here, but add another player and I'm almost certainly playing AKs.