Re: discuss
 

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This sound like someone who's been running bad. Everything Ok?

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Correct, and no [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(Refering to myself, not Mike)

Re: discuss
 

mike,

i have a lot of respect for you and what you write, but this post sucks. we know there's a lot of short term luck involved, but we play because every time we sit down at the poker table, we have a better chance of winning than losing. yeah there's a lot of luck involved, but it's dead wrong to say all the little marginal decisions don't matter.

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im calling bullsh*t on the whole thing. the only people ever sure to make money are the ones collecting the rake. and ive won every year ive played, more and more each year, for the past 5 years. and that's meaningless.

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i'm calling bullshit on this statement. find me a really good player who isn't sure to win the money in the long run. and if you're talking about the short run, well we all knew that anyway. you're results for the last five years sure as hell aren't meaningless. you're results for the last three months are.

Re: discuss
 

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i'm calling bullshit on this statement. find me a really good player who isn't sure to win the money in the long run.

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You are missing the point. Mike is saying we need to re-evaluate what we call "the long run"

How long are you suggesting it is? Apperntly somewhere between 3 months and 5 years?

Re: discuss
 

Interesting to hear this from so well-respected a poster. Personally, after starting $5/$10 5Max on PokerRoom.com at +340 BB, it's been -210 BB directly afterwards, and poker honestly doesn't even feel like the same game. When 5 times an hour, you 3-bet AK, are called by K2s, and see a K27 flop...man...this game feels crazy. I finally understand how El D. listed a 30k break-even stretch.

Re: discuss
 

"I finally understand how El D. listed a 30k break-even stretch."

that's just the tip of the iceberg. as time goes on you will read some really ugly stuff. and all of it will lead directly to what im saying. the math is there, it all adds up. limit hold em is a farce.

good luck guys!

Re: discuss
 

"within .1/100 seems a little high"

"I'm sure you would be well within 10% of a big bet of your true expectation within a couple of years."

check with others. the math does not bear this out.

"This sound like someone who's been running bad."

ive run bad, but before that i ran good, so good i bought 5 houses w/ the extra money (not own outright, just "own"), and before that i ran bad at times, but mostly ran really really good. and right now im running okay, but i think due to my thinking on this, my clarity, im about to run better than ever.

in other words: your theory stinks.

Re: discuss
 

"find me a really good player who isn't sure to win the money in the long run."

define long run.

(hint: your answer will be very wrong.)

Re: discuss
 

mike -

Do you feel differently about NL?

Re: discuss
 

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"I finally understand how El D. listed a 30k break-even stretch."

that's just the tip of the iceberg. as time goes on you will read some really ugly stuff. and all of it will lead directly to what im saying. the math is there, it all adds up. limit hold em is a farce.

good luck guys!

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I don't get it.

If LHE is just a farce, why are you going to continue playing? Just for fun?

Re: discuss
 

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This sound like someone who's been running bad.

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and/or someone who didn't keep records when he was running good.