Re: american idol: intertops sportsbook has 2 straight bets and a bonu
 

it really was like a license to print money with those odds. a $110 cap was such disappointment.

Re: american idol: intertops sportsbook has 2 straight bets and a bonu
 

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any idol thoughts for next week?

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i think BO will win going away. however, i sold 132 contracts of him at $62 and have kept only 50.

i did this because getting $62 on him with such an AMAZING AND STRONG talent in carrie, it would have been foolish in my mind to roll the dice. i made fantastic profit on him, and made great money on constantine. on top of these profits, i have 50 contracts to bring into the finals and i can now just watch for fun. however, if carrie blows him away tuesday i might sell the addl 50 before elimination.

my avg cost on my bo's was well under $20. if he was facing anyone but carrie i would have not only held until end, i would have bought more. way too much can happen with a fan base as deep as carrie and $62 sell was too tempting to pass up.

don't be mistaken tho, i think he is going to kick her butt. my choice was made because i could not justify the risk for the extra 38 points.

finally, in idol history, there has been proven value to the underdog factor. her being the underdog all of a sudden, coupled with her raw talent can make this a very close vote.

my general advice for a casual investor is this:
if i had 20 conracts on BO, and i had bought them under $20, and the money really was important to me, i would sell them at the current $60. if the money is not that important, i would sell half of them. if the money meant nothing to me, i would hold them all.

it has come down to personal comfort. i was ready to lose my entire stake, and had no intentions of selling because i ALWAYS felt he and carries prices were backward, so i had faith and was determined to hold until end because $30 for him was just insulting. the 40 point shift between the 2 made this plan change quickly. i was shocked to see him go from 23 2 weeks ago to 62. however, like i said, he still has to get thru carrie.


not an easy task. this is NOT like getting thru diana digarmo (sp?)


finally, remember this is not scientific, but there is a strong correlation between AOL members and those likely to vote next week.

http://www.playpcpoker.com/images/aolpoll.JPG


mae OUT

Re: american idol: intertops sportsbook has 2 straight bets and a bonu
 

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not an easy task. this is NOT like getting thru diana digarmo

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yeah, but didn't you panic last minute and sell almost all of your Fantasia's IIRC????

Re: american idol: intertops sportsbook has 2 straight bets and a bonu
 

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not an easy task. this is NOT like getting thru diana digarmo

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yeah, but didn't you panic last minute and sell almost all of your Fantasia's IIRC????

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oh lord no. i paniced and contemplated, but did not. i had 109 contracts and *almost* sold half of them, but ended up holding them all. rumor had it that there was a 1% difference and that the show would shock everyone.

what i think you remember is that there were lots of rumors i was spreading here and i think astro sold some early and yelled at me (righfully so) for spreading false rumors as fact.

big difference this year is that.

1. i paid $38 for my fantasia's so i was not able to lock up such a nice score in advance.

2. i had not made a big early score like i did this year on constantine

3. fantasia was sooo far ahead of diana in talent that while i was affected by the rumors, i was able to keep control. carrie too talented and HOLY CHIIT, i got $62 per! he was 25 the day earlier!


now, wanna hear the best part?? wsex paid me 2 times to NETeller. i had 2, $10,900 xfers the next day.

i wrote inthacup and said "what would you do?"

cup said
"same thing you know you will end up doing, i would give it back"

i left it in my NETeller acct for 10 days out of curiosity and they had no idea. i let them know of my error, and i could tell by the responses i got (i spoke to 5 people), that they NEVER would have found this... EVER.

they took care of me great, but the $10,900 was SUCKED out of my NETeller account about 30 seconds into my second conversation with the person i was xferred to on phone.

this is a previously untold GRANNY story. well, inthacup knew and he probably told the manwhores, but i did not tell the story here because people would have told me i was a fool.

they can do that now.

go fantasia.