Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent just sat down. No notes. Is this a proper value bet, or might I be just as well off shoving it all in since he is shortstacked?

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($1901.25)
UTG ($190)
MP ($2476.5)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($1167)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($1714.75)</font>
SB ($1487.5)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $35.

Flop: ($105) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $102</font>, CO calls $102.

Turn: ($309) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $306</font>, CO calls $306.

River: ($921) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $350</font>.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am made very uneasy by this hand. I see these hands are perfectly reasonable for the opponent to have:

44, 22, 77, plus 88,99,TT-AA

You are ahead of the first three. The middle pocket pairs would have almost definately raised at some point to "protect" their overpair. This seems like the standard play with 88 or 99. That did not happen. I think the villan is on a set, or perhaps aces. I also do not consider him shortstacked -- so much so that you cannot realistically call a raise yet your bet on the river completely pot sticks you.

I cannot easily imagine a sane player calling this bet with any hand that you beat.

EDIT: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is another possible, yet somewhat more unlikely holding.

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

you think he checks the river with a boat or even trips? granted it's possible but I think very unlikely.

--turnipmonster

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

I will definitely push it in here a fair amount of the time, especially against guys who don't trust me. For reasons touched on by you and turnip, my river action here will usually be check or push.

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

What makes you think that against a preflop raiser it's so common for 88 or 99 to raise at some point with a board of undercards that the fact that villain has not yet done this must mean he has a set? It's very common for people to play such hands slow hoping to get to a showdown-you can't just assume that hero's crushed here.

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

Against an unknown opponent who's been flat calling like this, I will check the river. You are probably very likely ahead still, but what's he gonna pay you off with?

Lawrence

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

You are right about it being unlikely, however, is it any less likely that he checks 88/99 for three streets without finding where he is?

Also reply to below.

Re: I dunno how much to bet on the end, 5/10 PLHE
 

I check the river too.