Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

how many six max hands have contributed to std dev

20,000.

Lost Wages

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

the party 5-10 6max game is not very aggressive so swings are not that great.

the 10-20 6max is more aggressive so swings are worse.

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

Your 3rd assumtion is wrong.

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

the 10-20 6max is more aggressive so swings are worse

OK, so what is your standard deviation at 5/10 & 10/20 6-max? Do you have some evidence that variance and aggression are related?

Lost Wages

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

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Your 3rd assumtion is wrong.

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Why?

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

No, #3 is correct. If you have a true win rate of 2BB/100, a SD of 15BB/100 and play 100 hand sessions, then 95% of your sessions will fall between +31.4BB and -27.4BB. If you play 200 hand sessions then 95% of your sessions will fall between +45.6BB and -37.6BB.

Lost Wages

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

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3) Time compression. More hands played per hour means more hands played for the same session length and consequently, greater wins and losses per session will be observed.


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No, #3 is correct. If you have a true win rate of 2BB/100, a SD of 15BB/100 and play 100 hand sessions, then 95% of your sessions will fall between +31.4BB and -27.4BB. If you play 200 hand sessions then 95% of your sessions will fall between +45.6BB and -37.6BB.


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What if you played 10,000 hand sessions? What if you played 100,000 hand sessions? It is intuitive to me that as your amount of hands per sessions increases then your winrate/session approaches your true winrate.

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

[ QUOTE ]
the 10-20 6max is more aggressive so swings are worse

OK, so what is your standard deviation at 5/10 & 10/20 6-max? Do you have some evidence that variance and aggression are related?


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I dont have pokertracker in front of me but I have about 10,000 10/20 hands. I remember 2 +100 BB days and 1 -250BB downswing.

In 40,000 5/10 hands I never had a downswing that bad and I can only remember 3 +100BB swings.

However, I am not convinced I am a winning 10/20 player.

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

It is intuitive to me that as your amount of hands per sessions increases then your winrate/session approaches your true winrate.

Yes, this of course is true. Your observed win rate (BB/100) approaches your true win rate. I think we are on the same page here.

What I am talking about is a psychological effect. When you increase the number of hands that you play per session, the extremes that you can win or lose in terms of absolute dollars increases. This leads some people to (wrongly) conclude that 6-max is more volatile. What is really happening is that they are simply playing more hands per session.

No sessions are long enough to get to the "long run". If a 2BB/100 winning player could play 100,000 hand sessions then there would be almost no chance of him ever having a losing session. Real sessions are measured in hundreds of hands.

Lost Wages

Re: Fact or Fiction?: 6-max is More \"Swingy\" than Full
 

this is because your SD/1,000,000 hands will be much smaller than your SD/100 hands. in Lost's original post he was stipulating 100 hand sessions, merely because SD/100 is the commonly collected stat.