Two Plus Two Older Archives - never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

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- - never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=198940)

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

I had a very similar hand the other day. The street I misplayed is the turn, where I definitely should have raised. I had such a strong read that MP1 was full of crap that I had to blow away the field and make it heads-up to ensure my victory. Luckily my mistake didn't prove fatal, and although I still failed to improve, I called for one bet in a large pot.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (18 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, Button folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (17 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 19 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 5s 4h (two pair, queens and fives).
Hero has 6s 6d (two pair, queens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 19 BB.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

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hmmm. i probably fold once this is 2 bets to me preflop.

how do you have 3 outs on the flop? i definitely call that river bet. you only need to be right once every 15 times.

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2 5's and a backdoor straight draw

about 3 outs in my opinion

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I think you are overly optimistic about the flop situation. There is a two flush out there that you have no part of which taints both your set and your straight possiblities. Even if no one has a flush draw (and with this many people in, someone often will), you can still hit and lose because if you catch the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (or a diamond straight card), a fifth of the time or so another diamond will come on the river. Given that it got capped preflop, there is a real chance that you are against pocket kings and only the straight is winning for you. Your odds aren't as good as they look because there is a reasonable chance that it could get raised behind you. I'm not saying you should fold this flop; the pot is so big that when you do have five outs, you are getting a very nice overlay, which will make up for all the bad things that can happen, and your implied odds if you hit are pretty nice. I would call here as well. I think the situation isn't quite as great as it might appear.

Folding preflop at any point would just be ridiculuous, btw. Your preflop play was very solid.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

Did you have a read that this table was this bad? A9o raising, QJs three betting? With players that L-A you can probably safely bet the turn and call the river. If your read had said your opponents were more reasonable, then you might be looking at a fold instead of an overcall there.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

Way to stick in there, champ. But there are two things I'd like to point outh: (1) low pocket pairs should not be played when players are typically capping btf...that's because the final pot would have to be > 16BB in order to be a +EV; (2) after the flop, you only had one clean out.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

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low pocket pairs should not be played when players are typically capping btf...that's because the final pot would have to be > 16BB in order to be a +EV

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12 BBs went in preflop. You're honestly trying to say that on average less than 4 more are going to go into this pot postflop? Really?

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

I would disagree here. The presence of the K on the board and all the callers and raisers pf makes it likely that someone has a K. Had the flop been 9 high, I'd say bet.

Then again, maybe this falls under bet to protect your hand and I'm all screwed up again.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

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Folding preflop is disgustingly bad. You are getting an immediate 14:2 when it comes back around to you,and likely better when all is said and done. Even if you knew that the original raiser would cap it, a call here is guaranteed +EV with your implied odds.

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Yup

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

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I would disagree here. The presence of the K on the board and all the callers and raisers pf makes it likely that someone has a K.

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The fact that everyone is checking it makes it extremely unlikely that someone has a K.

Re: never fold for one bet on the river in a big pot?

I actually like the K here because it makes it less likely that high cards call. but I admit I never thought of a turn bet.