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-   -   A9s six players see flop. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=194455)

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 08:52 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

jon_keck 02-12-2005 08:53 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
But think about it, when you have people fold you increase your chance of winning the pot greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to sound like a parrot, but I agree. It's just that betting here isn't as obvious (to me) as raising pf or flop was.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 08:57 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Actually ignore my first post, I would bet here. You have about a 20% chance of improving to the nuts and if you spike an ace you might win. Since you're contributing 20% of the pot, you should bet. Betting would be better than taking the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll give you at best 23% equity here. You'll have to get ALL four players calling for a bet almost every time for it to be +EV. Take the freecard.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 08:59 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Turn is debatable. A free card here would be nice, but the pot may be big enough to try and knock out a player or two.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless you can get a better hand to fold by betting (won't happen often) you don't want to knock out players by betting.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 09:01 AM

Re: re: all
 
[ QUOTE ]
If I check and catch an ace on the river, I won't be happy if it's a bet and 2 calls (or worse) to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? It's an easy call.

jon_keck 02-12-2005 09:02 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wracking my brain. Thanks for the input.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 09:05 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
But think about it, when you have people fold you increase your chance of winning the pot greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. You improve your chances a tiny bit. Not worth a bet.

toss 02-12-2005 09:10 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
Meh I may very well be wrong. We need Shillx here to run some numbers.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 09:17 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
We need Shillx here to run some numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you understand this we'll not have to ask Shillx:

[ QUOTE ]
1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

[/ QUOTE ]
If a bet won't improve your chances in winning the hand unimproved (it will not) it's wrong to bet to fold opponents. And since you'll not get 4 callers most of the time either it will be wrong to bet because of your ~23% equity.

Another (small) advantage of checking is that somebody might bet into you when you river the flush.

Nick Royale 02-12-2005 09:23 AM

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think it was better to bet the turn and may be get free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't want a free showdown with A-high.


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