Re: i do this crap all the time... TT BB
 

i'd call this down most of the time.

the dude who suggest 3-betting the turn is nuts.

Re: i do this crap all the time... TT BB
 

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Think of it like this: If Hero is good 3/10 of the time there needs to be ten bets for every 3 he puts in, or something close to 3.5. Your problem lies in the estimate. It's probably closer to 1/10.

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Okay 2/10 but that's my final offer [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I agree I was being very loose with the 3/10 estimate but 1/10 seems too tight. Problem is at 2/10 you will be calling almost every time, at 1/10 much less often. I wonder if there is any software or online sites that have acquired data to narrow down the percentages.

Re: i do this crap all the time... TT BB
 

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Anybody seriously think a typical 1/2 player would 3-bet the flopwith quads? Come on. I bet they wouldn't even lead out.

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If our odds are 1:10, in this case it would be correct to call every time. And I think think that's a decent estimation. Slightly +EV, maybe slightly -EV, but call for sanity.

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(7/10)(-1) + (3/10)(+X)=0 (I have no idea if this is right)
If it is correct however the answer would then be X=2.3 bets. So everytime the pot is bigger than 2 bets it would be correct to call even knowing you will lose 7/10 times. That can't be right. Can it??

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The calculation is correct, but you're estimation is way wrong. If a calculation like this comes out +EV, call every time. If it comes out slightly -EV call sometimes to not appear weak at the river and induce your opponents to bluff.

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I think "at best" are odds are 7:10 being beaten here. 7 times he shows the K and 3 times two pair or a bluff. By calling the river 7 out of 10 times we lose 1 bet and 3 out of ten times we win X bets (X being all the bets that went into pot on previous rounds which we would forfeit by not calling).

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Nitpickin': 7 out of 10 times = 3:7. Not 3:10.

Re: i do this crap all the time... TT BB
 

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the dude who suggest 3-betting the turn is nuts.

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Hey hey, let's be fair -- I didn't suggest 3-betting the turn so much as I suggested bet / calling a raise followed by wondering if anyone else would 3-bet the turn.

But yeah, I am kind of nuts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
-Brian