Re: Big Pots
 

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the only mistake i see is preflop when you shoudl have folded. other than that you played it fine. this reminds me of mason's hand where he won with a pair of fours or something in a huge pot.

pat

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This is completely backwards.

I'll let others elaborate. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

EDIT - Although I still don't understand his preflop line. The result is that 6 players see the flop for a cap, though. That's just fine. He is getting his 5:1, as you need with a middle to low pair.

Re: Big Pots
 

Wow...I really felt like I made the right decision on this hand. However, I refuse to be the one guy that makes a post and argues his case against overwhelming opposition. I may very well have been wrong to take it as far as I did.

One question...why compute odds for the turn only? When you look at your pot odds for a flush draw you are looking at about a 35% success rate by the river. If you are only looking at the turn then it is much, much more often incorrect to bet with the draw, and very incorrect to call with the draw even in a multiway pot. To me, this doesn't make sense. I understand that you will have to re-evaluate your pot odds on the turn, but in all honesty, in a large pot, with a flush draw it wouldn't matter how many bets I had to call to see the river if I was drawing to the nuts. While I understand that a set of 5s would hardly be the nuts. I was playing in a VERY weak game. I put everyone on big cards except the reraiser who I'm sure had a high pocket pair.

Not that any of this justifies anything. I consider you my panel of experts and I will take what you have to say graciously and appreciatively. I learned how to play about 6 months ago and I still have a lot to learn. Thanks for your input. BUT let me just finish by saying that I truly believe that many good, good hold em players are unable to take their game up a level because the too often fold in big pots on the river. The fact that almost no one has chosen the answer "MP folding on the river" as the biggest mistake is crazy to me. To me there is no greater mistake. Most fold because they are SURE that they are beat. Let me add, that in this game, there are no certainties. Yet many of these players will make this mistake over and over while calling down the river in small to medium sized pots, to keep the other player honest, or because they may be bluffing. Calling on the river is mostly about the money in the pot, and not the cards in your hand.

I leave it open to major criticism which I am sure will come. Thanks guys, you're the best.

-Daver

Re: Big Pots
 

No need to get worked up about it, or anything like that. I doubt you will get much harsh criticism. Quick question for you, do you own Theory of Poker, by Sklansky?

Re: Big Pots
 

Despite what most people are saying, besides the flop bet you played this hand fine. Preflop you have clear odds to call. On the flop there is no way you bet this, however if you're getting pretty good odds such as 15:1 when it comes back to you, you can call here because if you hit your set there will be enough people in the pot that this is a +EV play even given the chance of set over set.

Despite what EliteNinja said, someone with merely top pair or middle pair does not have two outs to beat your set if you would hit, because the card that would make them trips gives you a full house.

The check-raise on the turn is a good play and when you don't get 3 bet here you should be pretty sure your set is good, as any hand beating you here should and almost always would 3bet. The K on the river is a scare card as someone could have had KK, but this is a spot where you still bet and just suck it up if it turns out you're beat by KK.

Re: Big Pots
 

Really? So basically with 15:1 you should call on a ragged flop with a unimproved pocket pair? It's a pretty close play, so I guess I can see that.

Since the chances of improving on the turn are actually 23:1, you need some real implied odds to justify that, and he barely got them.

Still, this would be a very rare instance of profitably (barely) drawing to a 2-outer.

Btw, I want to mention that I, personally, never said he did the wrong thing in this hand, because I knew it was pretty close. I only posted because I saw that he was computing the odds the wrong way. So, even if he made the right play, he might have been doing it for the wrong reasons.

I do that sometimes. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

EDIT- I guess I did make a comment about how I felt the one guy had a backwards opinion about it, which implies that I thought folding on the flop was correct. I just thought the other line of logic was wrong. The preflop call is a pretty standard, most of the time I think it's a bad idea to draw to a 2 outer. With the way the flop action goes down... I just don't know.

Re: Big Pots
 

Calling Pf is routine since there are 5 opponents and it doesn't cost full price; you are getting 7:1 and need 10:1 to cover the times you lose, and you'll clearly make up the difference if you flop a set. Once you make the marginal first call, calling the cap is a no-brainer.

Betting out is rediculous, unless you know for sure that it WILL stop them from getting upedy with no pair, AND they may get upedy if you don't bet, AND you think they are all getting updedy before the flop. That's a lot to hope for. But with all that action its CLEAR you need a set. Calling the flop reraise cold getting 15:1 is pretty darn marginal. But you DID get 8 more bets in so you won 23 for you 1. But you need 22:1 and you need to account for the times you snag your set and still lose, such as to KK, back-door diamonds, or a straight.

Your statement "getting 15:1 in a huge pot" is a redundant and a bit rediculous: the "15" part IS the "huge pot" part. If it was 3 bets to you the pot would be "huger" but you'd only be getting 11:1. And the odds is the key feature there.

- Louie

PS. They almost always are telling you how they feel, not what they think.l

Re: Big Pots
 

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Calling Pf is routine since there are 5 opponents and it doesn't cost full price; you are getting 7:1 and need 10:1 to cover the times you lose, and you'll clearly make up the difference if you flop a set

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Just for some clarification Louie, where do you get the "10:1 to cover the times you lose" bit?

Excuse my ignorance. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Since it's 7.5:1 to flop a set or better, I thought that was the only number to consider with a pair like 55.

Re: Big Pots
 

I might not be able to reply to anything for a couple days, so I'll just post a follow-up to why I asked you that question.

If you have TOP, read the section on effective odds. That will help you to make 2 cards to come odds based decisions. Still effective odds are often just estimates, and with a multiway pot it becomes harder to estimate the bets you will have to call. That's why it's usually best to use your odds for 1 card to come, but you should still factor in your best estimation of your implied odds.

In your hand, the decision is very close. If I had to make a solid "yes or no" choice, it would be to fold the flop. There is some doubt about the implied odds being high enough. It's close to a break-even play. When I'm faced with a decision getting very close odds AND the possibility that I'm already drawing almost dead (runner-runner straight or quads), I fold.

Re: Big Pots
 

No, I'm asking for it for Christmas. I have read Lee Jones Low Limit Hold Em, Caro's Poker Tells, Supersystem, a couple of odds books, a couple of tournament books, and HPFAP 3 times. I have a lot of reading left to do.

Re: Big Pots
 

Betting the flop really was ridiculous. Although, my thought process was that it would certainly be raised and maybe reraised to knock out some hands. This is the wrong logic to have and I see that now for sure. Thanks for the advice boys.