Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

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Button called 3 cold. While this is party poker i'd imagine this gets raised about 20% of the time here.

I actually think the 5:1 behind figure is higher. Limpreraises are usually about AA 40% KK 20% QQ 10% AK 20% Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.

Regardless, even considering the chance we may hit our long shot draw and lose makes this a fold.

Lemon Jelly - Experiment Number 6.

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i guess i just flat disagree with your numerical assesments here. aa 40% puts it at 3:2 against. i'd say its a longer shot than that given my experience. is there a way for me to see that from poker tracker? (i.e. what is the count of limpreraises to hands etc...?) further, there are no reads given. the button called 3 cold, yes. that makes me think he has precisely a low pair hoping to hit a set or something like QJs or KQs which i've also seen, not to mention A9s which a lot of people have trouble tossing away. he'll be looking to get to a showdown more than the 4:1 that you're giving against his raise. also, you started at 50% and now down to 20% so you must agree that the raise is a longer and longer shot than you initially supposed.

anyways, this may be a case where we just never end up converging as opposed to the usual case where i hang my head in shame, and you prove to be correct again and i learn one more thing from you....here i think my analysis is what i'd do and what i'd recommend night should do.

-Barron

EDIT: PS- what is with you're new sign outs? lemon experiment? and the first one?

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.


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Too bad there are not more of them.

Orange

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Phil Fan with 77 - 99 10%.


[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad there are not more of them.

Orange

[/ QUOTE ]

77-99no....but i've seen that limp cap all the way down to 22...

-Barron

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Lets just put AA and QQ as 10% shots and say it never gets raised behind you.

Over 230 hands.

220 times you lose 1SB. -220bb

9 times you win. 21SB + 6SB in implied. +243SB

1 time you lose 1SB + 6SB in implied. -7bb.

net, +0.072BB per hand.

Say 20% of the time he has it. -220b + 216 - 14 = -0.078 per hand.

So 15% looks the breakeven number. This is without the button being allowed to raise once he raises your pot odds and implied odds get cut in half.

Levellers - Just The One

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I don't need to go further as I agree with 800gambler 100%.

The only time the 3 bet pre-flop works is when you have a chance of getting the flop checked to you most of the time, and you can get a free look at the turn. From what I've heard about this game, that sounds like never.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

i dont see the similarity at all. utg capped it preflop and the flop is now AQx and someone is calling him as well. you have just about the easiest possible fold in all of creation.

dont call for implied odds theyre not there because you may be drawing only to runner runner quads. fold fold fold fold fold. this one is very far from close.

oh one more thing: a big part of this is i dont trust you or other players to fold on the turn here enough. you will decide the pots too big and it's time to call down now and make him (them?) show you it. yuck. reverse implied call down hell.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

nice. one more thing to think about are the other players in the pot. there will be times 99 makes a set that beats utg (or that 99 is good on the flop or even the turn) but then hero is beat by one of the other players making a bigger hand. this is different then just looking at a heads up decision.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I agree with 1800gambler's hand analysis, and music choices, as well.

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

I've seen people limp rr with a much broader group of hands than the ones you suggest.
-James

Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
 

Yea. Me too. This is still a fold.

Oasis - The Girl in the Dirty Shirt