Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

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Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.

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For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

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Again, in that case we're only getting 10.5:2 to call down and AQ/TT have to be discounted if the turn goes check/bet.

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For some reason, I only had the first three responses (including my erroneous initial one) in front of me.

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Ok, cool. Thoughts?

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

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Thoughts?

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Uh, I don't know. I think it's close.

I've been seeing a fair amount of 3-betting with AQ lately. I don't know how often that hand is getting folded instead, though.

I know it's a crappy flop for AQ, but I can imagine someone peeling with it on the flop. But, yeah, I think we need to discount it. I mean, it shouldn't be easy for Villain to peel with AQ on that flop, versus a preflop capper.

How often will a 5/10 unknown bluff AQ if checked to on the turn? I'm not sure. Certainly not always. Hero has represented a big hand.

I'd rather not give a 6-outer a free look at the river and would probably bet-fold. (And I do think if Villain holds AQ and peeled on the flop with it, he'll most likely fold it now.) But I'm not at all sure bet-folding is best.

We are probably behind, and the chances of this do go up if we check and Villain bets. So I think you make a good case for a turn check-fold.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

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That ten on the turn gave AQ an excuse to call again, so we can continue hoping we're up against that.

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The ten came on the river.

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Yeah, and I think the situation looks pretty bleak on the river. Villain probably wouldn't still be in with AQ, and he might have dumped a pocket underpair by now too (if he would 3-bet preflop with one of those in the first place).

I think the river is a check-fold. If your hand is best, Villain might check behind and let you win. But I doubt you're best very often here at all. That ten on the river ruined your best remaining hope.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I'd bet/fold the turn. I'm quite willing to concede the fact that we're likely behind here, but I think the size of the pot warrants one more bet. Given the amount of strength you've shown - capping pre-flop from a blind and betting a K-high flop - I think QQ will fold the turn often enough to justify the bet.

But, once it gets to the river, I think I'd check and fold. You're just not ahead of anything in his likely range, and if he got to the river with QQ, he's not folding it.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I check/folded the river.

I'm torn between check/folding and bet/folding the turn. I think betting is better because of folding AQ/QQ and having lower pairs fold so I don't have to play the river. (While many of these hands should fold the flop I think many players foolishly peel here.) After he calls the bet on the river I don't think I have the best hand enough to warrant calling if he bets after I check, and I don't think QQ is folding after calling the turn.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I don't like the pre-flop cap, personally. We're not that far ahead of the ranges of a legit (though unknown) UTG+2 open-raiser and a legit HJ three-bettor. Calling in allows us to exploit our relative position and check-raise a lot of good flops. If UTG+2 caps behind us it also gives us information that will make the hand much, much, much easier to play.

Re: Tough spot 5/10 JJ
 

I agree.

Although this time capping did allow the hand to be played heads up. Granted, out of position. And also I was trying to use my image to get hands to fold when they shouldn't.