Re: Working on my agression. Paying off?
 

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Curious about your thinking.

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Interesting question -- I would not have even considered folding here. I guess it’s because I see this as a classic promo-raise situation. I am looking to narrow the field so my reasonable but weak 2 pair might hold up for high or my 2nd nut low might win for low. An extremely important element of this is the fact that I can present the rest of the table with a double bet which now only offers 4:1 odds on a call. I’m not sure if I’d bet or check if its checked to me.


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You are not going to bet out the A2s and you are not going to bet out high flush draws.

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That’s good news, not bad news. Let’s say you’re up against the nutflush draw with weak low (AK49), and a nutlow draw with a weak high of middle pair (A25T) – then you are a favorite.

pokenum -o8 js 3h as 5s - ac 2d 5d ts - ah kh 4h 9s -- jh 5h 7d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 7d Jh 5h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Js 5s 3h 142 361 304 1 96 317 0 0.411
Ts Ac 5d 2d 55 58 607 1 371 42 0 0.339
9s Ah Kh 4h 88 246 420 0 9 404 0 0.251


On the other hand, I wouldn’t mind if they folded either, since they have reasonable odds to call. (Keep in mind here that while the A49K hand looks like its 25% equity is getting 3:1 odds to call, that is 25% equity from here to the river, and I’ll be betting most turn cards, so its’ probably worse)


Even if one opponent has the nutflush draw WITH an A2 low and bet into me, I would easily have odds to call, and certainly not be in bad shape.

pokenum -o8 js 3h as 5s - ah kh 9s 2s -- jh 5h 7d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 7d Jh 5h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As Js 5s 3h 209 512 308 0 108 378 9 0.475
9s 2s Ah Kh 251 308 512 0 450 36 9 0.525



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You don't even have top 2 pair, and there are reasonable combinations of low cards that could turn a low into a scoop.

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All the more reason to bet – I don’t want them around to have the chance to beat my two pair or catch their reasonable combinations of low.


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this doesn't seem like the kind of hand to be aggressive, it looks like a fold.

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Why? Consider that

1) you may have the best low draw. An A2 will be out at your table ~50% of the time. Now consider that no one has shown any strength – button/SB/BB didn’t raise preflop which they very well might have with strong A2’s, and SB/BB checked on the flop. You are more likely than not to have the best low draw right now.

2) You may get even or better low draws to fold. Bare A3 should certainly fold here, and some A2 low draw will have to fold (I’ll bet you would recommend A2xx with nothing else fold to a double bet here, for example)

3) You very likely have odds to stay even if raised. Even if you are behind to a strong hand, unless you are up against something like A2JJ, you have odds even if you put in 3 bets.

4) You have up to 8 outs to improve to either top boat or nut low.

5) By raising now you find out on the cheap street if someone does have a strong hand. It narrows their holdings considerably more if they can call 2 bets here instead of having to call just 1.

--Greg