Re: Market timing
 

Strong academic evidence published over the last 30 years by numerous investigators has shown that all forms of technical analysis subjected to testing have shown to offer no better returns on investment than a simple buy and hold approach.

I'd just like to point out that there are numerous papers that have showns TA to be useful. Especially, in the currency markets. The reasoning is that there are many banks present in the currency markets whose primary purpose is not profit making. Also, very few currency traders use TA only (I read 10% only in a paper by profs from Camebridge), usually it is used in combination with some fundamental info.

Another example is the January effect in the commodity markets. Again I read this in a paper published by academics a few years ago (might have been eliminated since then tho).

So it is not universally accepted that TA is bogus.

Having said this, I believe tho if you're trying to use the simple TA (like MA crossover, stochastics etc), then you will have no edge whatsoever IMHO...I remember reading that some of these became so overused that in fact the reverse signal has an edge in some markets.

So if you're trying to use cyclical patterns that are well known then you can't time the market. However, if you discover something that is not well observed then it might have an edge.