Re: AA trips, counting outs on the turn
 

uh you are crazy, first off the only thing that you are behind is a made flush period, so unless they have exactly 9x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] they couldn't have hit the board and still be ahead end of story

if they have anyother flush you have 10outs, if they have any non-flush you have the best hand period

any form of 2pair is dead, unless they have the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], sets are behind maybe only having 1out(they can have spade draws) ..
you are thinking way to hard about this

Re: AA trips, counting outs on the turn
 

I'm going to reply to entity in a bit.
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bottomset:

I just want to know how often I'm going to hit a full house.

The action does play a role in determining how likely that is to happen: you mentioned someone with two pair, or trips, for example.

Re: AA trips, counting outs on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]

bottomset:

I just want to know how often I'm going to hit a full house.

The action does play a role in determining how likely that is to happen: you mentioned someone with two pair, or trips, for example.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you subtract outs for people possibly holding cards you need, you must also subtract those cards from the "total cards" that you use to compute odds, and to compensate for this adjustment, you must also subtract the other cards out there that are not the ones you need from the total card pool as well. This includes the probably-low cards that the preflop folders tossed.

Re: AA trips, counting outs on the turn
 

There are really two or even three distinct questions in here.

To begin with you have one out to quad aces and 9 to aces full. Thats really not debatable. The question(s) is rather what to do with those.

1) First thing to consider is if you wanna discount your outs because you might make them but your made hand will still be no good. This should not be a big factor here, an ace obviously gives you the nuts and even though a card that gives you aces full could give someone quads but it's unlikly enough to be worth more than say ½ an out.

2) Next question, are your outs live? Is there (assuming the action so far) a reason to guess that an excess of the cards you need is in the hands of your opponents and therefore dead to you. Well there probably is and if it was close you might wanna discount an out or two for that.

HOWEVER, it is NOT a close situation.

3) Why are you even thinking about outs here? This is not a situation where outs is a helpfull way of analysing the situation. Folding isn't really an option at this point so what you really should be wondering about is equity and if you wanna raise or not.

/Bjorn