Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Damn I made a good laydown. I think.

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Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Damn I made a good laydown. I think.

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Yea, limit holdem is all about finding big laydowns. Get real.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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The problem is once you call the turn you probably should pay off on the river if it also blanks.

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This isn't a problem, if we can make 2 +EV calls in a row it's good thing. But the first call isn't +EV so it depends on whether or not the 2nd one is.

I agree some players goes crazy hu and might 3-bet the flop with A-high (or even worse). It seems like calling down is close.
EDIT: after making some calcs it seems like calling down is easy...

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Nice hand. You saved 2BBs. I think you're folding the winner here at best 15% of the time.

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

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The simplified version is that you have to call twice and invest 2 BB to try to win 7, so you need to be good 2/(2+7) or 22% of the time.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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According to my calcs we only need to have the best hand about 13-14% of the time to justify a calldown.

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The simplified version is that you have to call twice and invest 2 BB to try to win 7, so you need to be good 2/(2+7) or 22% of the time.

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.

The complicated (and correct) way of calculating:

We improve 11% (5/46=0.11) of the time.

x - 0.11x = 11% (we need to be ahead an additional 11% to reach 22%)
0.89x = 11% -> x = 12%
EDIT: x = the probablity of being ahead

Then I added some since sometimes he will check the river with A-high (this also makes calling the turn and folding the river an option), but if we're ahead 15% of the time we should call down. We're also getting some impleied odds, but maybe they almost cancel with the risk of being up agaist AA/TT/AT (they don't entirely do).

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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Yea, limit holdem is all about finding big laydowns. Get real.

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Get a dictionary, dude. Good =/= big. This isn't some awesome big lay down. He's not folding a set or something. He's folding a pair of 7s after fielding a lot of aggression. Jesus.

Calling station.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

It's a heads up pot between blinds. I don't understand what you're not understanding.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.


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You also have to take into consideration the possibility that villain is behind and improves his hand to a winner.

Re: Probably Boring Blind Defense Hand
 

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You're not taking the chance of hero improving into consideration.


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You also have to take into consideration the possibility that villain is behind and improves his hand to a winner.

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You're correct, that was actually another reason I increased the precentage we needed to be ahead, but I forgot about it when I wrote the post. Besides it's much better to include it in the calcs, thanks.

0.87x - 0.11x = 11%
0.76x = 11% -> x = 14%

This is assuming he'll have 6 outs on average and that hero and villain don't improve at the same time. I think 5 outs is a decent estimation since PP's, overs, gutshots, flushdraws and oesd are all possible.