Re: TT bubble hard decision?
 

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You should go allin with hands FAR FAR FAR worse than TT here.


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I am curious to know why you advise CALLING with far far worse than TT here?

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This advice was given when the OP had messed up the hand history and it appeared as if it were folded around to him in the sb and he open-folded.

Re: TT bubble hard decision?
 

thanks for fine-detailed analysis

appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: TT bubble hard decision?
 

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ICM analysis first:

Fold = 28.8% of the prize pool

Push, win = 39.2% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 19.3% of the prize pool

I think it is VERY safe to assume BB will fold if you call, as he slides ITM if you win.

So what range of hands should we put villain on? Because villain is putting pressure on the other small stack, the only other player with whom he has any FE agaisnt, I believe this opens up his range of hands a little. I am going to do two analysis. One with the typical range of hands, and one with a much looser range.

Typical Range of Hands: A7+, pairs, any 2 broadway cards except TJo,

Looser range of hands: Any A, Any K, Q8+, J9, J8s, suited connectors - 56+, one hole suited connectors 68+.

Range 1 Analysis:
TT has 61% win % against range

Call = (.61)(.392)+(.39)(.193)
Call = 31.4% of the equity prize pool

Range 2 analysis:
TT has a 67% win % against range

Call = (.67)(.392) + (.33)(.193)
Call = 32.6% of the equity prize poo

Final Analysis
Fold = 28.8% of the equity prize pool
Call(R1) = 31.4% of the equity prize pool
Call(R2) = 32.6% of the equity prize pool

So no matter how you look at it, calling looks correct.

Allin, I think you benefited by posting this hand. Whenever you don't know for sure, do an ICM analysis, and post here. As you can see, this is kind of close, but over the long run, it is a +$EV move to call.

If I were in your shoes here, given what you've told, especially the fact that he won with a recent premium hand (which gives him table image for like 1 or 2 orbits), and that he is pressuring other SS (which, IMO, opens up the range of hands he would push with), I would likely call.

If he were pressuring the big stack (which, IMO, tightens up the range of hands he might push with), I might fold. I'm assuming here that Big stack would be behind you in the BB.

The lesson to learn here is that villain is using good skill here in pressuring SS, and convinced you to fold with a solid (not great) hand.

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Also interesting here is that even if our read is wrong, and villain's range is like (55-AA, AT-AK, A8s, A9s), we _still_ make money by calling (we have a .565 win% vs this range, so trusting your ICM numbers I get 30.5%). It's only when he has a set like 99-AA, AK, AQ that our call becomes slightly incorrect (.435 vs that range; via your numbers I get 28.0). Of course your range is much closer to reality; I just think it's interesting that this is one of those hands that intuitively looks pretty marginal if we give UTG lots of credit, but turns out to be pretty clear in the end.