Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

It would be a mistake for the Villain to raise the turn AQ/KQ and bet the river again. This isn't the point that wheelz is making though.

Who is turn-raising with AQ/KQ and also betting the river? I am assuming it is not the line that many 2plus2er's are taking. The player in this hand is solid. How many solid players are taking the turn-raise, river-bet line? I don't think many are. I don't think that you are folding out better hands and I don't think the value bet is very good.
Keep in mind that that the villian probably views the hero as a decent player.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

Jim,

I do not like the river fold.

Here is why. Once you bet on the turn, knowing that you will be raised by AK, JJ, and AA/KK/QQ; and might be raised by AQ or KQ, then you need to be prepared to call the river for one more bet. Looking at it another way: He raises the turn with AQ, or AQh or AJh (or semibluff with AJo), and then you call and check the river. Why would he not continue with a bet? They always will in my experience. Laying it down is wrong on the river, even with the terrible 5.

Mark

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

The turn and the river both look bad. But can you really say that you are not ahead more than 10% of the time? Maybe...

but if you thought villain was looking to boat up on the river, you should have probably folded to the raise on the turn. I think you thought that after the fact to justify your fold.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who is turn-raising with AQ/KQ and also betting the river? I am assuming it is not the line that many 2plus2er's are taking.

[/ QUOTE ]
wow, you really really assumed wrong.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that many people will be betting this river with KQ or AQ after they raised the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure they will, its called a value bet.

-ActionBob

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

Your AQ hand, where you folded TP to a turn c/r, seemed like you were beat rather than outplayed. But folding this river for 1 bet seems like your taking this great laydown stuff to an extreme.

I go back to what Ed Miller wrote about the effect and severity of your mistakes. I think calling this river is at best a small one in the long run and I'd make it every time.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

You need to call this river, you'll find KQ/AQ enough to make it profitable at nearly 10:1.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

This line seems perfect for KQ as well as AQ, this is an EASY river call given the size of the pot. I also like going for a c/r on the flop b/c you've got a powerful hand and you can trap both players for 2 bets

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who is turn-raising with AQ/KQ and also betting the river? I am assuming it is not the line that many 2plus2er's are taking.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, you really really assumed wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ and AQ are raising either the flop or the turn almost every time. The way the hand played out, a reasonable villain is value betting this river with either of these hands every time.

I would probably slow down and just call down after the turn raise (unless I fill up) because AK is a very distinct possibility.

However, due to AQ and KQ possibilities, folding this river can't be correct here. If the river didn't counterfeit your two pair vs AA and KK, a river check/raise/fold might even be better.

Re: QTs in the BB. Ugly River.
 

If you put yourself in the villians situation. When he raises a decent player on the turn and gets called; does he really believe that the river is a value bet. IMO he will rarely get better hands to fold, and he isn't beating much when he is called on the river.