Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

mistake a = mistake b.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

Betting the flop is correct, in my opinion. Given the read, I like the turn check.

Definitely bet the river.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

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mistake a = mistake b.

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I disagree.

Mistake A implies passivity, but does not offer a free card. whether our hero makes the bet or calls it, the price remains the same.

Mistake B offers infinitely better odds than mistake A for drawing hands to catch and take the lead.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

You can disagree for reasons other than expectation. But from an expectation standpoint the mistakes are exactly equivalent. And that's all that really matters.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

here's an excellent thread over in SSSH that deals with this concept brilliantly.

the underlying concept here is that inflating the pot even when you have neutral equity is -EV when you have to peel again on a whiff.

It doesn't apply directly to this turn play, but abstractly I think the thought process has merit.

In this example though, betting the turn is only correct to the extent that

--button would not have raised or checked through the turn
and
--button would have called a bet on the river if you had bet the turn, but would not have you had check/called it.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

I never said hero should bet the turn. I was simply pointing out that from button's point of view calling a bet instead of raising is no less of a mistake than checking instead of betting. Button's equity is what it is and she misses the same amount of value with either mistake in this hand. I think the turn check by hero is fine here though.

Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
 

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do you guys like the standard check call here instead?

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actually i think id go with the standard bet/3bet for value if you are more than heads up if it were to get raised back to you

id bet the river