Re: AK no good?
 

Yes. See deception's post for what I think is a pretty good look at it. Also, in the other (mistake) double post, he posted a read that the opponent "seemed normal." Weak, but it just reinforces the way I was leaning anyways. You're showing a ton of strength, and he doesn't care.

I also really liked deception's point about him not checking behind anything but a draw, so we should see if its an overplayed OESD after we check the turn.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I think his range is slightly larger than what you give him, I would put more J and more K hands in than you have.

I think I am probably slightly optimistic though.

True

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Very optimistic. The only J hands played like this are two pair or suited in spades.

Re: AK no good?
 

Bleaugh, dont read anything ive said, I was under the confusion that this was a blind battle for some reason.

True.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I also really liked deception's point about him not checking behind anything but a draw, so we should see if its an overplayed OESD after we check the turn.

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Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

I guess with a read things are different, but it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

Re: AK no good?
 

I kind of like the donk fold on the turn. No one's raising any worse hands so we can fold and I also think that that hands like KQ that we had beaten will call down.

Re: AK no good?
 

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Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

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What percentage of the time does he actually have an OESD, and then what percentage of the time does he fire again on the turn?

Even if he continues on the turn something like 75% of the time, its still a very small chance in the grand scheme of things.

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it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

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He's telling you pretty clearly that your hand isn't that strong. I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

Re: AK no good?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a villain who's willing to overplay the flop with an OESD, it seems to me like he'll frequently overplay the turn as well by leading?

[/ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time does he actually have an OESD, and then what percentage of the time does he fire again on the turn?

Even if he continues on the turn something like 75% of the time, its still a very small chance in the grand scheme of things.

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it still sucks to give up on such a strong hand HU.

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He's telling you pretty clearly that your hand isn't that strong. I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

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If we bet/fold he will tell us all the hands that we are drawing slim against, and call with the hands that we have outs to call with whilst still charging an OESD to draw.

If we check, he will bet KJ, but if we bet he will call KJ. He would also call with hands we beat that he would regularly check through with.

True

Re: AK no good?
 

I'd say he's got KJ>Set>OESD/FD in that order IMO.

OESD - I doubt but maybe he cold called QTs etc.

KJs is more likly IMO as is a set of 8's(makes sense him calling in position to put pressure on you hitting your OC's... but i'd expect a reraise).


So ill check and fold i think.

The only problem is that such a player who CAPS with a OESD, Will probably bet the turn again when checked to no?

It's tempting to bet as to prevent the free card, but when we do get raised this isn't good as we do have odds to call.

Although if we put him on KJ we've 3outs...so we dont.

But it comes down to his range, 2pair IMO.

yeah, i'm check/folding the turn. Sure sucks to fold TPTK but TPTK doesnt seem to be the best hand here and it sure sucks to be 2nd best.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I'd say he's got KJ>Set>OESD/FD in that order IMO.

OESD - I doubt but maybe he cold called QTs etc.

KJs is more likly IMO as is a set of 8's(makes sense him calling in position to put pressure on you hitting your OC's... but i'd expect a reraise).


So ill check and fold i think.

The only problem is that such a player who CAPS with a OESD, Will probably bet the turn again when checked to no?

It's tempting to bet as to prevent the free card, but when we do get raised this isn't good as we do have odds to call.

Although if we put him on KJ we've 3outs...so we dont.

But it comes down to his range, 2pair IMO.

yeah, i'm check/folding the turn. Sure sucks to fold TPTK but TPTK doesnt seem to be the best hand here and it sure sucks to be 2nd best.

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We have odds to call against pretty much nothing that raises us again, I think bet/calling would be the worst play here.

Re: AK no good?
 

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I really don't like putting anymore money in the pot, but I think c/c c/f is the best way to go about finding out more if you absolutely have to continue.

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I think if we decide to call the turn bet that it may be reasonable to call the river bet on any non-9 river card because I think it's very likely that he bets QT again (since it's the only way he can win at that point) and we still have to consider the slim chance of KQ/AK and the fact is the pot is larger than it was on the turn and the turn/river bets haven't given us any new information (since if we called the turn it's because we hoped he had KQ/QT and that is still a possibility at this point). It also costs 1 more bet as opposed to 2 on the turn so we only have to be right half as often.

That said I think folding to a turn bet may be best.