Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

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Call.

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I actually like this play more than pushing here. If no A or K on the flop, can get out of the hand with some chips left. A or K falls, probably go broke if I am beat.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

push. you don't want to play this out of position postflop, and you want to see all 5 cards. besides, you have some FE.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

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Call.

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I actually like this play more than pushing here. If no A or K on the flop, can get out of the hand with some chips left. A or K falls, probably go broke if I am beat.

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To be honest, I hadn't even considered this option. I'm not sure how much I like calling off 1/3 of my stack only to fold it the 2/3 of the time I miss.

Still, I don't particularly care for my other 2 options either.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

How often does everyone think the villian calls if you push here?

What is one's plan after calling? Is it to Stop N Go? If so, how often will villian fold the flop?

What would one do if villian had open pushed here??

Yugoslav

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

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Bry, is there nothing else you'd consider here?

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Of course not. Other factors include the small stack UTG who will almost be blinded off in the next two hands. In addition, we have a BB left to act who has a nice stack.

If we call, we're going to miss the flop roughly 2/3 of the time and end up folding. This will leave us with 1225. The BB will probably end up all in HU with someone on the next hand. Some % of the time they're going to double up. 30%-40% a reasonable guess? Now we're evenly stacked and the blinds are hitting us. I hate that.

The other reason I push is because I think we have FE. Why do players min raise? Often it's because they don't want to risk their whole stack. Occasionally it's a to trap with a big hand. Could possibly be he likes his hand enough to play it for all our chips, but not the big stack next to us. If he's been doing it a moderate amount, I figure there's a good chance he's weak. Even if he's not weak, it's still very likely we have the best hand. One concern is the pot odds we're offering. If he's a good enough player that he never folds getting over 2:1 on his chips, then pushing isn't as favorable.

Math is stupid
 

So I did the math on this one.

According to ICM, folding leaves you with approx. 25% of the prize pool.

If you push, you need a FE of 25% to make this play better than folding. Given that he's a slightly weak-passive typical 22 player, he probably won't fold this enough to make this play correct (somebody correct me if they think a player like this *will* fold more than 25% of the time). So pushing is probably worse than folding.

To analyze calling is slightly more difficult since you will occasionally hit and lose, miss and win, and hit and win more than the amount you've called. To simplify, I'll assume you win iff you hit an ace or a king. If you lose you're getting about .218 of the pool and if you win you're getting about .316. This averages out to about 25%, which is about the same as folding, unless you think your opponent will make horrendous errors in judgement post-flop (which is also quite likely at the 22s).

In conclusion, calling is probably best, folding second best, pushing worst unless you can get a higher FE.

In the actual hand, I pushed, he called with KT and won and I got 4th.

P.S. Thanks to Yugo who worked a lot of this out for me.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

How often do you think the villian has to fold to make a push here profitable?

How often do you think the villian will fold?

I think your reasoning is why calling may not be all that great here, btw. But it's an option I hadn't given a ton of thought to.

Yugoslav

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

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What is one's plan after calling? Is it to Stop N Go? If so, how often will villian fold the flop?

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A stop n go seems terrible here, since most of the hands he'll fold are hands that were worst than yours preflop, all you're doing is missing out on extra chips. If he catches a piece of the flop, he'll probably call.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

here is why I'm pushing:
out of the hands the button is raising, he's only going to call with the ones that you have dominated. If he's trying to steal with something like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hes probably dumping it, but if he has a shiny K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he's calling, which is fine.

Re: My First Hand Posting in the STT Forum!!1!
 

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here is why I'm pushing:
out of the hands the button is raising, he's only going to call with the ones that you have dominated. If he's trying to steal with something like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hes probably dumping it, but if he has a shiny K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he's calling, which is fine.

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He'd probably also call with any pair, which would be quite bad for us. When I did the math, I put the villain on A7+, any pair or any broadway and AK was a 62% favorite.