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- Small Stakes Hold'em (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=15)

- - JJ (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394912)

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Qtip,

What would Nate do?

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I'm missing something.

no you are probably not. i just threw out a semi-vague reference that does not really pertain to discussion of the hand. you posted the 77 link the other day by Nate tha' Great. it is not a good comparison as the entire point of his post is about loose flop calls and some other considerations which have nothing to do with this hand or the fact that you will be outdrawn a reasonable amount of times given this board. i just think he was one of the more prolific posters and as i have seen you reference him a couple of times i think you may feel the same. so i was saying, do you think he would fold here? i understand it is a marginal spot to be in given the draws out to get you, but i like to get money in while i am ahead but i think you are very likely best here. i think you should see the turn. just keep in mind the marginality of your hand and its vulnerability and play it as such. i would not usually give up on this flop, though. you don't have to go to the river, but damn bets are cheap on the flop. i would say raise to protect but hell the guys behind you called two cold pf, they may call again and the pot is so bloated you are going to the river and having to pay off. nice point but i peel here and look for a chance to protect on the turn if possible, and if not you can laydown then. it just seems you are giving up alot folding big PP's when people are likely drawing. when running good, bricks fall of and YHIG, when running bad every draw comes in. that's how it works.

Although there are a multitude of scare cards that can hit on the turn, we need to raise here. It is very likely that we still have the best hand, and there are a lot of hands that we want to fold behind us. The pot is very big, and although many hands would be correct to call two cold behind us... lets give them a chance to make a mistake and fold. It will be easy to get away from the hand for one big bet if many of the worse scare cards hit. So lets get rid of some overcards and maybe some gutshots/pairs and see what the turn brings.

I'm tempted to raise this, only because calling and folding don't seem right...

Call, fold > raise. I think folding is correct but I'm still doing some math. cf. p. 61 of TOP.

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I'm tempted to raise this, only because calling and folding don't seem right...

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Raising seems easily the worst of the three options. My gut says call, but I can see a fold.

I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing.

I think the choice is between raising now, or calling and raising a safe turn.

Raising now, you'll make it about 9 to 1 (taking into account rake) for the next three callers, at least making it marginally incorrect for a gutshot to call.

In decending order any 8, 4, club, or overcard to a jack is relatively scary.

I'd probably be tempted to do this:

Call the flop. I don't think you'll knock anyone out here with a raise. A late position raise will very often be a drawing hand. Call the raise if it comes. On the turn raise any safe card, probably raise even if it's an overcard to your jacks.

No reads on players, especially those behind you? What is your table image? How long have you played at this table and how have you been running?

If my image was new or good, I raise to test where I am at half price before the turn card. If I get 3 bet, now I give real serious thought to folding.

On the other hand I played JJ recently and had KQx flopped against me and an A on the river only to find that all 3 against me drawing to flushes or playing other really stupid cards. I bet into the KQx from an early position but chickened out and checked on the A river card. I was surprised to find that I won at showdown.

The current and potential size of the pot suggests that I stay and raise to test where I am and I want to find out before the turn at 1/2 price. I raise.

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I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing.

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A board like this is rarely going to make it to showdown with only one bet put in on each street. The pot is large but on average our effective odds are no good.

Raise this one. Its the cheapest way to find out where you are at. Anyone with 2 pair or better is 3 betting here. Evem a flopped str8 will 3 bet considering there are 2 callers chasing.