Re: You think this is a leak?
 

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Why must it be taken as a given that this is a push/fold situation? With T9s, I see merit in paying the t300 and seeing a flop.

You have 400 chips more than shorty/UTG (an important "block"), and he pays blinds ahead of you. If you call with T9s, i suppose you will then have to fold to a push from either blind (steal or legit), but that is a minority of times. So see a flop and use your superior poker skills Scuba. SB can do whatever he wants, complete or not, suprisingly often he does fold, maybe bottom 40% of hands(!). So if the BB does check and we see a 2/3 handed flop, you can pick your spots to make your bet or not,and with t1000 behind, THEN it must be push. But limping, you arent commiting to the pot, and you will flop the best hand 1 time in, uh, 3(?). And you make use of being the button, i'm sure you can take away a good chunk of pots when he flops bottom pair, or if you both miss. If he stop-and-goes you, well, only call if you are pretty damn sure you have him beat. Otherwise, fold.

Just a suggestion, an alternative. If limited to push/fold, yeah push seems OK, 450 chips helps...but i'd wait for a better spot. Remember shorty pays blidns next hand, not you. The stacks/positions, for me, dont make having t1900 than much better than your current t1400, for $equity in the tournament. I'd toss this and be thrilled if SB decides to push at BB...and even more if he gets called [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] That would jump your equity even more than having the t450 blinds.

BL'

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The problem is 1) you might get raised and 2) even with your description (which ignores raises), this play seems only marginally +cEV and high variance, which means it's -EV in a structured payout tourny.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

Don't see how you can push this. What if you knew that you would get AA the very next hand. Would you push this T9s now? Hell would you even push with A9s here?

Well this is essentially the same thing. UTG is going to have to take a -EV gamble at some point, and guess who the main beneficiary is? Figure that sneaking into the $$$ is worth about 3% of the prize pool and there is no way that you should be pushing this hand. You will be lucky to get any value from it let alone anything close to 3% of the pool. Pass up on +EV gambles (if this is even +EV to begin with, which is questionable at best) to exploit bigger +EV gambles later (namely watching UTG flip for his tourney life). That is the name of the game.

Brad

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

According to your logic UTG could also get AA next hand and in that case he is not flipping for his life. It almost sounds to me like you are satisfied at just post and fold till u make the money.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

I'm generally raising these hands in the $22s. It really depends on hand ranges, as Tigerite says. I'm probably worried more about what my table image as the time for affecting those ranges though.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

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what are you scared of? they are not priced in to call you and neither stack is huge enough to call with a mediocre hand. You win the blinds the majority of the times. And when you are called you still have a good chance to win the hand... what buy-in?

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$33

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't see how you can push this. What if you knew that you would get AA the very next hand. Would you push this T9s now? Hell would you even push with A9s here?

Well this is essentially the same thing. UTG is going to have to take a -EV gamble at some point, and guess who the main beneficiary is? Figure that sneaking into the $$$ is worth about 3% of the prize pool and there is no way that you should be pushing this hand. You will be lucky to get any value from it let alone anything close to 3% of the pool. Pass up on +EV gambles (if this is even +EV to begin with, which is questionable at best) to exploit bigger +EV gambles later (namely watching UTG flip for his tourney life). That is the name of the game.

Brad

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I posted this because it turns out this has a +0.9% expected value against Eastbay's default lag calling ranges. That's awfully high to pass up. I didn't know how big a value this was until I reviewed.

BTW, this is a $33 buyin.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I posted this because it turns out this has a +0.9% expected value against Eastbay's default lag calling ranges. That's awfully high to pass up. I didn't know how big a value this was until I reviewed.

BTW, this is a $33 buyin.

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I think those calling ranges are too tight. You can't see SB or BB calling with KTs? I've seen that call a ton of times. How about A2s? Or 33? Or JTs? All calls I've seen. If you change the settings to maniac for both you get -0.9%. Maniac for 1 and loose for the other and you get -0.1%.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

If the table is aggressive I'm pushing while I've got the chance. If the table is tight I'm pushing. Give shorty 200 less chips and I think about folding.

There is a leak here but I'm not sure who's it is.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

I fold there. I tend to put most oppenants on either Loose or Maniac setting. Even under Average setting, SNGPT gives this a +0.2 wich is not enough for a push. So only way you can push in this spot is if you put the two big stacks in the blinds behind you on Tight setting. I think that is very unrealistic, expecially in a $33.

Re: You think this is a leak?
 

For those advocating giving looser ranges to BB (and SB) I think that's very wrong. At low BIs, 33s included, people simply do not call very loosely when there chip standing can go from ITM to 4th. BB has a lot to lose here and if you havent been pushing like a maniac up until now, then, this push should be very +EV off the top of my head. I wouldnt put BB on maniac calling range ever here.

I couldnt imagine a hand like KT calling here.