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-   -   Can I Fold Aces Here? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=97703)

Leo Bello 06-27-2004 11:37 AM

Re: Can I Fold Aces Here?
 
He had eleven outs, he didnīt know what he was against. But u made a weak pre-flop move.
A bigger raise pre-flop was mandatory.

RichSaneSwindler 06-27-2004 12:55 PM

Re: Can I Fold Aces Here?
 
First of all hero had an overpair to villain's top pair top kicker and flush draw. This is usually 14 outs (9 diamonds, 2 tens, 3 aces) against an overpair, but because two of the aces were in the opponents hand and an ace would not help the villain the number of outs reduced to 11 (9 diamonds, 2 tens). This is a less than 40% win rate against when all in with 2 cards to come. So, the call was correct if AA knew that the villain was drawing to the flush with TPTK. In fact, what makes this interesting was that villain might have figured you for JJ, QQ or AK and moved in to either steal the pot or have even money with fourteen outs, but miscalculated due to your small preflop bet and was actually a dog and drew out.

Now, given your opponent probably did not put you on aces, and given that he overbet the pot, I would have probably put him more likely on the TPTK with flush draw than a set and then simply decided if I wanted to gamble a huge amount with only a 60:40 edge. Probably would have called.

Thoughts?


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