Re: Very Familiar
 

Without any reads, and in a small pot, this really reeks of spewage.

We need to have a number of things go in our favor after the flop 3-bet to make this a profitable play. Given the lack of reads - we have a very low accurracy in predicting the probabilities with which these things will happen.

Easy fold.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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I just looked at the explanation for the SSH recommendation for its similar hand (p. 271), and there are some differences I believe to be important.

(1) The pot isn't as big.

(2) The initial bettor was not a PFR. So it's hard to put him on a big ace we could buy a couple of outs from.

In the posted hand, I don't really know what's best.

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How big was the pot? I don't have the book with me.

I'm glad this isn't turning out to be forum clutter because I felt bad posting it.

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In SSH, it was 6 players to the flop for two SBs. On the flop, there's a bet from the PFR, a call, a raise, and then two folds. So there are 16 SBs in the pot when it's our action.

By the way, in SSH we do hold exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The board is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. So that much matches up very well.

Re: Very Familiar
 

i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

Re: Very Familiar
 

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Let's say that we think we'll get a free card here about 85% of the time with a 3 bet. I think that's conservative.

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

Even when you do get a free card and then hit by the river - you're still going to need to recoup bets with both aggressors on your immediate right. I think you're not going to get the return when you make it there on the river and UTG+1 leads the river and you either raise and hope to get 1 extra BB from him or call to try and get 2BBs (maybe 3) on overcalls.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

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Folding is no good. The pot isn't huge here, but it's decent and we have 6-7 outs.

Re: Very Familiar
 

As others have said, the lack of the PFR here makes the hand play totally differently. I don't think the pot size matters all that much since it's big enough to continue either way, but the chance that UTG has an A that beats us and that he might fold if we raise is important. In this hand, he's MUCH more likely to have a made hand than an UI A.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

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Folding is no good. The pot isn't huge here, but it's decent and we have 6-7 outs.

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yeah but we are getting 4.5-1 with 6 outs. i dont think thats enough. Fold.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

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WAY too low crunchy. I've played a few hands in these 2/4 games, and my 3 bets on the flop give me free cards extremely often. 85% is conservative.

Re: Very Familiar
 

Folding here is just terrible if you have more then about 24% equity. Look at what happens when we have 25% equity and have to put 3 bets in on the flop and 1 in on the turn. Notice that we still have 25% equity on the turn bet since we will have sometimes hit our hand.

EV = 21 SB * .25 - 5 SB = + .25 SB + implied

If we get a free card...

EV = 15 SB * .25 - 3 SB = + .75 SB + implied

So if we think that we have more then about 5-5.5 outs here, folding is dead wrong in this spot.

If we have 20% equity, it is a .8 SB mistake if we have to call 5 SB to see the river. If we just have to put in 3 SB, it is a breakeven proposition. With 5.5 surefire outs, it is almost impossible to give us less then about 22% equity here. Add in the times that the aces will be good (and implied odds) and this looks like a +EV spot for our hero.

Brad

Re: Very Familiar
 

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Folding here is just terrible if you have more then about 24% equity.

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3-betting likely results in this hand going 3-way to the turn. So we have 24% equity on a 3-way pot?