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-   -   JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars). (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=390595)

12-04-2005 03:47 AM

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 
For me the preflop limper has something within 55-99, maybe a lose A9 or A5 although he would have probably folded them to the preflop reraise. So for me he can FOR SURE have 77-99 and maybe 55-66/A9/A5 or even a big pair.
The preflop raiser is very unlikely to have anything but 99-AA (he didn't cap preflop so it's not likely he's a maniac). Many players don't cap preflop with big hands to "hide" them so there is some chance he has a big pair. I don't see him reraising the flop with anything but 99-AA on such a board and I only beat TT from these hands.
For me we have to chose a play (call-lead/cap-lead/call-fold to a cap), calculate the likeliness that I'm beat and get called all the way (by QQ for instance), I'm beat and get raised and I'm in front and get called. We then have to see how many bets I win/lose in each situation to see if the play is profitable.
I actually folded the hand (and the preflop raiser too) because I figured out I only beated TT but I probably had the odds to see a turn.


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