Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

yeah, i wouldn't play it... 3 year wait.. and who knows? there must be a decent chance she doesn't even run.

regarding women voting for hillary. hard to say. although democrats already get a strong woman's vote. and hillary is disliked by alot of people.

everyone assumed that the strong turnout of the poor would kill bush. turned out (and i'm open to correction), that those extra voters were strong for bush (probably got tired of the press speaking for them in telling america how much the poor despised bush).

is guliani expected to run for republicans? i know, john mccain was up there (but he's from heavily republican state already)

Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

[/ QUOTE ]

whoever did so was correct he'd get good respones here, relax.

Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

At Pinnacle, she's around 50% to get the nomination, and the Democrats are 50% to win the election.

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 25% to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are 50% to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.

It also means the Dems would be really stupid to nominate her.

Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

To many factors here. I can't believe her odds of winning the presidency are anywhere close to 6 to 1 right now. These long terms prop bets are generally awesome deals for the house.
I'm not saying she won't win but don't think its worth a bet at this point.
You can bet me leaving the country if she does win, though I'm -3000000 on the ML on that but its a sure thing.

Re: Hillary for President at 6:1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

[/ QUOTE ]

whoever did so was correct he'd get good respones here, relax.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just assumed that, with all of the "forum correctness" that requires posts to match forums, someone wouldn't recommend this match.

Whatever, I don't care.