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- Small Stakes Hold'em (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=15)

- - hmm (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=400784)

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You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise.

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I was wondering why no one else mentioned this because I thought that with the other guy in there it was the right play, and it makes folding the river an easier decision.

Why not bet the flop? Are you guys sure he will bet with AK? What if he has 99? And if he has JJ - especially with a club - we want him to fold since he is getting the odds to draw. And of course we don't want him to check JJ.

I'd say its terrible if this flop get checked through.

Why not c/r the flop? I think c/r lets you find out more about MP2's hand plus you arent in terrible shape since you have top pair and the backdoor flush draw.

Also makes the river decision easier if you get 3 bet after the c/r.

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You're the favorite on the flop, and getting 2:1, I'd check-raise.

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I was wondering why no one else mentioned this because I thought that with the other guy in there it was the right play, and it makes folding the river an easier decision.

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I'm not sure I like it. According to his range (AK/AA-TT) you're ahead ~58%. But first you have to estimate how often the pretty passive pfr will bet AK and JJ on this flop against 3 players. If we cut those combos in half (I agree that might be too much) we're only ahead of pfr 40% of the time and remember we're also assuming we're always ahead of UTG. I would say we'll get 3-betted close to always when we're behind. This will fold UTG a pretty good portion of the time, which we don't want since the 3-bet indicates we're always behind and often drawing slim. We're not likely sharing any outs with UTG. So in reality we're not getting 2:1 on our money and we're not ahead as often as we might suspect.

I can see many respected posters like this flop play, but I'm not sure I do. If I think pfr is capable of betting AK/JJ on this flop I go for the check/raise, if not I bet it myself. But it's hard to estimate where the boarderline between these lines goes. Just from the top of my head:

Chance he'll bet AK/JJ=x
x>80% => check/raise
80%>x>70% => check/call
70%>x => bet/call

So I agree there's circumstances where a check/call will be correct. I'm notsure where to put villain in this range since the read is vague, but I think there's a decent chance betting the flop is correct.

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pfr was decently passive

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Like how? 5% pfr?

Generally, c/r the flop, call down if 3-bet (calling the turn for the flush draw, and a crying TPGK call on the river). If 'pfr' does 3 bet you might also shake UTG.

If no 3-bet, lead the turn. Again, call it down if you get raised. River call sucks but pot size dictates a call imo.

why not donk/call the turn? most hands you're beating would check this through, you'd hate if he had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Kx and you gave him a free look at the river and if he raises, you can fold the river UI?

I don't see how you can fold it anywhere and betting will either fold a worse hand or get you in a difficult situation.
I guess you can bet the river.

Very interesting analysis Nick. I'm going to have to think about this more.

thanks,
Eric

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Also makes the river decision easier if you get 3 bet after the c/r.

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This is obviously true, but don't forget that this information has come at the cost of the big bet you are trying to save... in other words, if you just call, then you have a chance to only put in 1.5 BB postflop, but if you c/r and are 3-bet, then yes, the river decision is easier, but you've already put in 2.5 BB on the flop and turn anyways.

Just pointing out that this is really an incidental advantage to the c/r. The information isn't worth the price you are paying for it, so you still have to feel you are the favorite on the flop after he bets and like the way the hand plays out when you c/r for value, etc.

-Eric

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I play mostly 6max. This hand pretty much sucks imo. The pfr was decently passive. Tell me what u do.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

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Why arent we raising anywhere?