Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

But..

He has 80% equity on a 500 pot, you have 75% equity on a 1.5k pot.

You lose 150 like 4.3 times. You get rivered and lose your whole 725 25% of the time.


*EV after 4 plays*
Calling and folding turn: -650
Hitting and no river: +3k
Hitting and rivered boat: -625

EV+ 1.5k

Which means, every time you call, you make roughly almost $400.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

This is almost a free double up... this is huge EV+

I think. Great thread BTW.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

i fold.

dont feel like doing the math, but its something like 8/45 X 34/44 = Whatever.

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Hey coltrane,

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Halfway through the post, my instinct was to call, with the thought process being:

"Cool, open-ender. I'm gonna call."

But, that was before I had read the entire thing. Once I got to the part about stack sizes and took a little bit to think it over, I saw that it was a fold.

My quick mental shortcut: Let's say that you drag the pot around 3/4 of the time that you hit on the turn. You win around $700-ish. You lose $150 every time that you miss. That is around 4.6 to 1. It is 4.6 to 1 against hitting. So, you would be around break-even if you didn't lose your entire stack when he hits his redraw. But, you do lose your entire stack when he hits his redraw, which means that the EV of hitting on the turn is less than $700. So, if $700 or so is the break-even point, less than $700 must be a fold.

Not sure if I could have swung that on Party or UB. I think that the clock on Stars would have given me enough time. But, I probably would have called anyway, because hitting a draw is fun...

If you do the actual math, you are looking at -$25.56 on the call, assuming you aren't against the ace of hearts.

Nice thread; I like these.

Mike

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

my instinct is fold, my math answer is:

not factoring in redraws, it would be +EV as

(8/45)*925 - (36/45)*150 = 44.37

but we have the cases of redraws, so we lose 725 sometimes to the nut flush or to a boat. 2/45 unseen turn cards give him a hearts+boat redraw (10 + 9 outs), 6/45 give him just the boat draw (10 outs).

edit: this is wrong, should be

so we lose 725 (2/8)*(19/45) + (6/8)*(10/45) about 27%, of the time that we hit. rest of the of time we win 925 obviously.

so finally we get

(8/45)*(.73*925 - .27*725) - (36/45)*150 = -34.79

edit: assuming we are against the ace of hearts.
--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I'd call there 5-1 i believe that i hit the set on the turn (yes i know it's 3-1 that ill get it by the river.) But i;m getting a ton of implied odds since you said your sure he would move you all in on the turn no matter what hit. Also if the turn brings a flush possibilty you could be sitting pretty at the end with a big pot.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Coltrane, this is realllll close, as you are no doubt well aware. You're getting 6:1, you need 5:1 if he has no redraws, but he does have a 1/4 chance of boating on the river, so it's almost exactly even. It's so close that it's not really that interesting IMO.

I call this if it's a capped buyin and I feel a need for a big stack. Otherwise I fold.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

everyone is saying that it's close, but the numbers don't work out to be so close. coltrane didn't mention the blinds but in a 5-5 game this call is costing us between 5 and 7 blinds (depending on whether or not villian has Ah). that's not insignificant.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Heres my math answer.

37/45 chance we miss and lose 150

break

2/3 chance villan has Ah
8/45 chance we hit

1/4 chance when we hit, villan has flush draw outs
26/44 chance we win 1075
18/44 chance we lose 500

3/4 chance we get straight with no flush
34/44 we win 1075
10/44 we lose 500

break

1/3 chance villan does not have Ah
8/45 we hit
34/44 we win 1075
10/44 we lose 500

You actually have to take into account you get straight with 7h and a Th falls on the river giving you the straight flush and villan full house.

If you want the actual number start with inner most indented lines multiply horizontally, add up rows at same indention and then multiply diagonally. Then add up everything at the breaks. Im guessing the number is very close to 0.

EDIT: sorry the indentions didn't work out so ignore that. But you get the point

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I fold.