Re: How often do we see aces?
 

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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

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If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

I really think this is a CLEAR fold & that many of your are missing the main point. Which is, if you're up against AA, it's a *terrible* mistake to call *irrespective* of the pot odds. And IMO you're almost certain to see AA here at any buyin. Like, 90%+. FOUR all-ins & you're blocking AK/KK!!

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

There are 28 people and counting who need their heads examined.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

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If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

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If we knew ... yeah that would suck. But we don't know do we. That 15% or so of uncertainty is enough to push it over the top.

On the other hand as I proposed in my first post, if we had a medium suited connector here. We don't much care if someone has AA or not.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

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If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

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If we knew ... yeah that would suck. But we don't know do we. That 15% or so of uncertainty is enough to push it over the top.

On the other hand as I proposed in my first post, if we had a medium suited connector here. We don't much care if someone has AA or not.

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First of all I think 15% is a very generous estimate.

Secondly, I don't think that even such a generous estimate outweighs the horror of getting it all in as a 4:1 dog on the first hand. I mean...doing it on the 1st hand of every SnG would automatically make you a sizeable loser, even if you got 1st every single time after sucking out!

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

Bones has the hottest avatar.

Is this another fold KK preflop post? Yeesh.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

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Is this another fold KK preflop post? Yeesh.

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don't hate, folding is def. correct here.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

Does anyone want to mention that calling as the second overcaller is stupid, even with the second nuts.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

Tough to measure this, but you're almost certainly worse than a 4:1 dog. Your kings are in one of the other allin hands. This is a remarkably easy fold. Can't finish higher than first, after all. 985 chips 6 handed is worth $126 by ICM.

Re: How often do we see aces?
 

I would fold here, although Ive only folded KK preflop once in my career in sit and gos (and I was probably wrong then)

This time I have no worries, and if I'm somehow shown that no one has AA I'm still happy in the knowledge that such play by my opponents will ensure a lot of $$ in my pockets for quite a while.