Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Cap the flop, I'm 3-betting the turn about 75% of the time with the field trapped. I'm betting and calling a raise on the river.

-d

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Yes, I would only call if bet to on the river.

I guess that my point was that this guy seems to check-raise instead of value bet so there was little difference between calling his bet and betting into a potential check-raise.

My thinking at the table was along the lines of the "heads up on the river" section of HEPFAP. But instead of needing to win this one 55% of the time it was higher since his probability of check-raising is very high. I thought it was something like 65%.

When you think about it like that, it seems close. (Or does it?)

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

I bet and expect the trifecta check raise. Then I three bet and call a cap. This is because he is super LAG. I just call if he's a garden variety LAG.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Sorry, Super-LAG but not that Super. Plus he wasn't Super-Bad (postflop).

3-betting is not an option for me here. I've got about 250BB bankroll and I don't want to squeeze out the small EV from this play (and I think it will be small with the possibility of him capping with a better hand) for the big increase in variance.

Even with 600BB bankroll I wouldn't 3-bet this though.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Pound away on LAGS with strong hands.... They will so you so much sh*t on the river it's freaking hillarious.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]