Re: Should I bet this river?
 

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This is bad advice IMO. You must bet here. Do you have any idea how many hands here the LP will call with that you have beat.

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You could well be right, depending upon the read. I was mainly arguing against the idea of a fold, and presented the check/call as a conservative way to not fold. Personally, I would not be uncomfortable with a bet here, again depending upon the strength of my read.

The reason I keep stressing the read is that the magnitude of your certainty required for each decision is very different between the two decisions. To go from folding to check/calling only requires a 10% chance of no flush, but to bet requires a 50% chance. But I think you're right, your typical LP at this level has less than a 50% chance of having a flush here, so bet/call is the proper decision.

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

It doesn't matter what read you have of the person, that's what I'm trying to stress. The read has nothing to do with this. I don't care what player you're against. It's not like "oh holy [censored], an LP would have a flush draw 20% of the time, but a TAG, it would easily be 80%". Your reasons for wanting a check/call were bad.

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

Bet it. All day.

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

You guys, not betting this river licks nuts. (Big ones.)

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

So if you bet do you call a raise?

Russ

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

This is horrible advice. Worse hands will call. Bet for value.

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

Against a passive player this is an easy fold.

Re: Should I bet this river?
 

I generally like good reads of at least 100 hands and some notes before I go and blindly fold to one bet. Absent reads, it's an easy call. And at .5/1, I'd probably almost always call.