Re: Let me clarify something.
 

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So let me get this straight. There is one holding you are behind of (Jd xd) and everything else you are making money from, and you guys want to fold?

Let's say you could keep on ratcheting the pot up with guy in first position, more or less assuring the flush draw puts in all his money if he wants to stay in. Isn't the 80% chance to increase your stack by 50% worth the tiny tiny chance that he has Jd Xd? Note further that the original question presupposes that you have a J and so does one other person, so isn't it even more unlikely that a third person has a Jack?

I don't understand the math well enough to figure out exactly how improbable it is.

I am very interested in seeing Sklansky's response, and I also think squirrel has been playing waaay too much omaha [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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First it is simple to calculate that folding isn't correct because you can just call the 200 and the flush should call behind and then you win 550 about 80 percent of the time and lose 200 about 20 percent clearly better then foldling.
Now the reason raising is bad is since if you do that you open the betting up to a reraise from the guy with the other striaght. Now 1/3 of the time he should have the jack of diamonds. if he does he can reraise you all in and be correct to do so. He knows you can't have a freeroll on him, It doesn't matter if he actually has the flush draw or not, just the fact that you don't. If he reraises all in you are faced with a situation where you can call and put your entire tournament at risk with what is at the best a chop of 900 chip or 900+whatever small amount the flush calls first. and at worst an 80 percent chance of that and a 20 percent chance of being eliminated form the tourney. Even if the ev from doing this is greater then from calling chips wise, I don't want to do the math, it certainly isn't great enough to make it worth risking your tournament life.

Re: Interesting No Limit Question
 

I appreciate the support, but your explanations are making it too easy for them.

Let them fumble around with the Jd concept for awhile. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Let me clarify something.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What happens if the last player is on a flush draw with the Jd and puts in a raise small enough that you are now forced to call, but large enough that gives you horrible reverse implied odds.

I hope I worded that right.

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I'm sort of ignoring this case since in the stated problem it lists the third player as having a flush draw not a straight and flush draw. I'm sort of assuming if you can read the guy for having a flush draw (he'd have to have seen both his cards to know this) you can read him for having the straight.
You can't do the same with the first player since he could have the straight and only seen 1 of his cards, so you may not be able to read him for the flush draw.

Re: Let me clarify something.
 

Only problem being if the flush draw also made the straight with the J of diamonds.

I don't have a problem with a call. I hate a raise though.

Re: Sticking to my guns
 

But the premise was that he does have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Squirrel said that he could push with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and
you said that he would not do that because the pot was
contested three way and that he would be afraid of a
flush draw. I then said that the third guy would not call
with his flush draw, and you countered with this:

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That's absolutely true. But the original bettor HASN'T moved in yet, and there's no guarantee that he will. If he doesn't hold the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then he wouldn't come back over the top for all the reasons that you and Squirrel have said.

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So, of course, you see the problem with your response. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Sticking to my guns
 

It is a problem though!

The naked Jd can raise you out of a pot you can't lose. How's that for -EV.

Re: Let me clarify something.
 

Now you're getting it.

Re: Sticking to my guns
 

i agree w/ squirrel.


it's particularly disturbing how people just cannot understand what he is even trying to say. they keep insisting that the first guy needs both diamonds somehow. the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is the most powerful card in the deck right at this moment in the hand. it assures you can't be beaten on the river, except by a pure flush draw, but the guy with the pure flush draw doesn't want to be calling an all-in bet for his whole tournament life w/ 1 card to go to hit a flush.

so if you reopen the betting, the guy w/ the flush draw might call, he might fold, or if he has a flush draw w/ the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he will likely raise and have you (and the other guy) in a tough tough spot.

even if he folds, or just calls, there is a 1 in 3 chance that the first guy w/ the made straight has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] alone, in which case he would be correct to push it all in right there, and then what are you going to do? well, you're going to have to fold. sucks to throw away chips.

Re: Sticking to my guns
 

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Your point about the Jd is well-taken. But realize that you really don't mind being reraised for all your chips, because this makes it so likely that the Jd is out that you can toss your hand.

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Of course you mind, because if you had just called you could
easily have split the pot with the nuts.

Re: Sticking to my guns
 

OK david said that the guy behind you has a flush draw, that means there are 9 diamonds left. He also said that the first guy has a Jack. ~33% of the time the J will be the Jd. Now there are 8 diamonds left. The chance that the other card will also be a diamond is made smaller, and so is the number of flush outs that can actually make the flush draw hit.

At worst you are looking at 7-42 shot for an opponent freeroll. My early posts did not take into account how much you had behind you and how small the pot was, but I continue to believe that folding is a terrible option.

I still think the chance to try to trap the flush draw's money in the pot before raising all in is the option I would pick. A larger raise to try to trap more of the flush's money in the pot would be good if he doesn't share your read that the first guy is going to go over the top no matter what. As long as you know you or your opponent will have the oppertunity to destroy flush draw's implied / pot odds for a call, I Think trapping the money in the middle is a good way to go, even with the tiny chance he is freerolling you.

An aside, I know that if my opponent has the Jd, he knows that he can try to represent the freeroll even if he doesn't have it (which is far more likely), and so if he tries to push in I have to call anyway.