Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

honestly, stop replying to this thread saying that you would sell shares of your decision, it's just silly and not part of the experiment. It's akin to saying, "Well, I;d just beat the [censored] out of the alien and make him give me a million dollars the I'd go take the other 10,000" It's just silly, nobody thinks that you're clever. Assume that whatever retarded hedge you want to come up with is not allowed by the alien, and if he finds out you did it, you die somehow. Don't try to get cute, the thought experiment is trying to get at something about the way people think and trying to isolate a variable that we often can't isolate in real life, don't be a retard.

Toodles

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

How come we cannot isolate it in real life?
I think it is because real life is messy, and there are many variables in real life and they all interact and the whole is greater than sum of the parts. If you cut too many options from a thought experiment in a graceless manner, it becomes useless as a way of approximation of the real life decision process. I was just trying to point out some unintended consequences of the original proposition. Now, in order to remove these consequences, you are trying to introduce extra constraints, which I am sure will bring about more unintended consequences.
Remember the Shroedinger's cat.

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

I had to sign up for this forum after reading this thread.

I take the determinist side, the free will side says, "The past is unchangable".

correct.

"The alien's decision is made prior to your decision"

correct. But, his decision was made based on your personality, education, and past events that happened in your life. He knows how you think and can manipulate the outcome. He knows that you believe in free will and will take both boxes so he leaves #2 empty, he knows you are capable of calculating +EV and will take that route so he puts $1M in box two, he knows your retarded and dont like thinking games and will just leave so he leaves both empty and doesnt waste his time.(Which would contradict setting up the problem in the first place [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

Thats my 2 cents...if it were up to me, box #2 only.

Girchuck, i dont think your allowed options in this problem other than chosing one box or two...the way i had invisioned it was like waking up in a white backround(you know, like the loading program from the Matrix) with a note and two closed boxes, not a magic show with people gathered.

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

you have to retarded not to ONLY PICK box #2.. this is like common sense kind of [censored].. i don't know why you guys get all worked up over this.. THIS IS SIMPLE

JESUS DIED FOR YOU (and me)

Ocean

OMG YOU ARE SO WRONG.. just take the blue pill.. so simple
 

if you believe you can win than you can win..

by bending your self you can bend the SPOON.

it's simple.

take the box #2... why do you thinks negative!?

- Ocean

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

I think I'd start skipping that class and playing poker instead.

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

I just noticed another interesting feature about the original problem. It says that the alien will make its prediction before you make your decision, but it doesn't say how much before your decision. I think the accuracy of the prediction will depend on time it was made.
A prediction made 20 years ago will be less accurate than the one made a nanosecond ago.

I changed the title so people would notice my post...
 

...and read it since I obviously have the right answer.

I scanned through the replies and was surprised to not see anyone suggest flipping a coin. You are gauranteed to get the million 50% of the time. But, kinda ruins the point of the question.

Re: I changed the title so people would notice my post...
 

Flipping the coin has been suggested multiple times in the thread. Another suggestion was to bet against alien being right, then take box#2 alone. If one bets 500,000 at better than 1:1 odds, one is guaranteed at least 500,000 this way.

Re: Free Will Philosophy Problem
 

For me, I think the difference between $1,000 and a million dollars is so great, that it would be worth the gamble to choose box 2. If I'm wrong, all I've lost is a thousand, but if I choose BOTH and am wrong, I'd lose a million.

The alien should know this will be my thought process, thus the million should be in Box 2.

The only way this isn't correct, is if I try to screw over the alien by changing my decision at the last minute. In other words, I go against every ingrained thought and habit, and I pick Box 2 just because I THINK the alien thinks that's what I'll do...

So, as long as you make a choice that is true to yourself, you are guaranteed to win the most money you could've possibly won anyway.

Does that me me on the side of determinism of free will? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]