Re: I am Very Angry
 

This is absurd. The only reason this thread has gone on so
long is because Sklansky was the intital poster. If you have
QJs UTG with only 5xBB left and you're going to be in the BB
the very next hand you have to go all in and HOPE to get called. I don't care how much better you are than the other players. Of course, people will say i'm wrong because I don't have any elaborate pretensions like book authorship or World titles to my name.

Screw them! I'm right regardles.

Re: I am Very Angry
 

Agree, calculator is on the bedpost-it's time to gamble and welcome a caller. All-in.

regards,
carlo

Re: I am Very Angry
 

Hi Paul,

To summarize your reply:

"I'm in a mood to argue."

In the interest of providing your simpering fans with more opportunities to marvel at your obviously superior brilliance -- how did this forum, or indeed the human race, ever survive without you? -- I'll reply to the "meat" of your post (such as it is):

[ QUOTE ]
So just to clarify this a little for me: if we wildly guess that we'll be called by exactly one person and also wildly guess that we'll be a 3-1 dog, then if we wildly guess that we'll be called less than 39% of the time, then we should move all-in? Sounds good!

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you don't understand the difference between "estimate" and "wild guess." David's reply ("I am VERY angry") essentially demanded that posters make these kinds of estimates thus arrive at a mathematical answer. I presented a mathematical model for deriving such an answer, an example of how that model is used (based on estimated data), and a discussion of how to find more specific data, including the difficulties involved.

A complete, rigorous answer -- including all possible branches, weighted for probability -- would require days of laborious calculation, or writing a computer simulation, either of which require more time than I am willing to put into it.

[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, as to the original question: "move in." I offer no mathematical justification but I bet this answer is still way more useful than the one I just finished needling.

[/ QUOTE ]

See David's reply "I am VERY angry" for why he does not consider this kind of answer to be useful.

Cris

Re: My answer, with math
 

Your welcome..i hope it was helpful.

David- you have answers with #s
 

you've gotten a couple answers with #s, now you don't respond?
you ask us, and don't give your answer. kind of weak.

Re: I am Very Angry
 

Cris,

I couldn't read the whole thing, since it is way too long, and far more complicated than needed (read mine).
One thing that is wrong is use based your opponents on 1326 hand possibilities. That is wrong since you have to take your cards into account, thus there are only 1225 hand possibilities remaining.
And I don't think KQ is calling unless you are known to pushin with a ton of hands (which can't be stated per the post by David). KQ would be quite a bad call. If antes, not so bad.

Re: I am Very Angry
 

Hi sd,

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't read the whole thing, since it is way too long, and far more complicated than needed (read mine).

[/ QUOTE ]

I worked out and posted the equity equations as much for my benefit as for anyone else's. If there are errors in them, please let me know.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing that is wrong is use based your opponents on 1326 hand possibilities. That is wrong since you have to take your cards into account, thus there are only 1225 hand possibilities remaining.

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't know which QJs you have, so I wasn't sure how to eliminate them at that end. Instead, I eliminated them at the other end, the number of possible calling hands, which included the fact that you are holding a Q with a suited J. I think you're right, though, and thanks for the catch.

[ QUOTE ]
And I don't think KQ is calling unless you are known to pushin with a ton of hands (which can't be stated per the post by David). KQ would be quite a bad call. If antes, not so bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would depend on relative stack sizes, I think. And that's another part of the equation that David didn't supply. If there's a monster stack at your table, and he thinks he can call you without being at risk to the other players (thus a late position play), I think he's likely to call with KQ here. KQ is a hand that can trap you if you have to play through the pot, but it's not a bad hand heads-up running hot and cold against a short stack's all-in.

Cris

Re: Simple Common Tournament Situation
 

you are an idiot. you only have 5 big blinds left in this problem. if you raise planning to fold to a re-raise you should stop playing poker. it is ok if you don't understand the all-in price v. range of calling hands v. stack size principles that david is trying to point out. however, don't try to hide behind "deeper thinking" being involved or whatever. when you are going all-in at this point in a tournament it is math, pure and simple. your range of hands vs. their range of hands and what sort of price you are getting. that is all.

p.s. i haven't done the math but this seems like a pretty easy push to me since you are going to lose 20% of your stack on the next hand and have something that figures to be in decent but not great shape versus the range of hands a "good" player will call you with....assuming they are even dealt one.

OLE!
 

Not much is funnier than seeing brutal ridiculing on the internet.

Re: Simple Common Tournament Situation
 

I have not read any other of the 100 or so posts, so hopefully you will respond to mine or link to a similar answer and response. I'm lazy, what can I say. I would fold for three reasons. One, QJ is not a good hand in NL holdem by a long shot. Two, I do not have enough chips to make everyone fold, which would be my best chance of staying alive. I would assume at this point, with the average stack at 4000, there are some people at the table with 6000+ chips and could call with marginal hands like AJ. Three, the blinds are still low enough that I can afford one more round. If I double up to 2200+300 blinds, I am not in a much better position than if I double up later to 1600+300.

I didn't even consider calling, though in this case it may actually be a better option depending on the aggressiveness of the table. I would assume at this stage, most small stack callers and pots in general are raised. If you could get away with a call and see what develops, though, that would be better than risking it all preflop here, I imagine. It's just that the chances of that are remote.