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Julia1968
03-20-2004, 06:00 PM
This is my first post, although I have been reading other posts and think this website is awesome. I have had a hard time with pot odds versus hand odds, not in theory (I understand the concept), but more in practice. In analyzing past games, both my plays and others, I cam across the following:

SNG \$10+1 NL tourney...Second hand in the game.

SB and BB (10/15) post.
There are two folds, then a raise of \$55 (&gt;double the pot) from Player 5.
I am 6th with 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I fold.
Two more folds, then player 9 raises to \$150. (again more than double the pot).
Player 10 and both SB/BB fold.
Player 5 calls for \$95 (pot odds of about 3 to 1) to make it heads up.

FLOP comes 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Pot is \$315
Player 5 bets \$325.
Player 10 goes all in with \$650.
Player 5 calls.

Turn 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
River T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Player 5 wins it with Flush, ace high, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 10 had K /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Okay..my questions..
First, did Player 5 make an appropriately sized bet given pot and hand odds? Second, did player 10?

If you were player 5 how would you have played it and ditto for player 10?

Thanks

AleoMagus
03-20-2004, 09:16 PM
I'm going to assume that player ten is actually player 9 here as you state that player ten folds preflop.

Ok, First, I don't like player 5's Preflop raise and I really don't like his call when reraised. AJ is easily dominated by a re-raiser and almost always behind.

Player 9 played preflop about right with KK.

On the flop, I still don't like player 5's play. A pot sized bet is 1/2 of player 5's current stack and he's pot commited anyways if he does it. If he's going to bet at all, a push might be better. Still, I think that player 5 has to be considering the possibility that Player 9 has a big pair and because of this, he's got a lot of reason to suspect that a push will be called. I'd check here. If the stacks were a lot bigger, I might even go for a check-raise in order to get a free card on the turn.

Player 9's push is good

Now, to answer your question, I think that player 5's eventuall call on the draw is good here. I don't like how he got himself to this spot, but he is getting good odds. His flush will come about 1/3 of the time with two cards to come and he only has to call 325 more to win over 1600. He really only needs to win 975 here to make this call correct (speaking strictly in therms of chip EV here). He's also got two overcards which make his draw even better. This is what I meant when I said he's pot committed after the 325 bet on the flop. He can't get away from this hand after that.

This is the problem with a lot of bad players. They convince themselves that they make good plays becasue they may even understand enough about pot odds to make these kinds of calls, but they should not have been in these situations to begin with.

Here, I'll read both of their minds at the end of the hand

Player 5: Great! Kinda lucky but I deserved it. After all, I had the right odds to call that all-in

Player 9: Geez. I just knew this guy was on a draw when he bet that pot. How could this fish call an all-in as 2-1 underdog.

Well, if that is what they were thinking, they are both somewhat wrong. The call that player 5 made was correct, but he played wrong up until that stage.

Just my opinion. I'd be interested to hear if other players would make that bet on the flop after being re-raised preflop.

Regards,

CrisBrown
03-20-2004, 11:39 PM
Hi Julia,

The problem here is that if Player 5 (AJs) assesses his play in terms of what Player 9 actually had (KK), and the way the hand played out this time, he feels like a genius. He was a 2:1 underdog, getting 3:1 to call at the flop, so of course he ought to call, right? Well ... no.

That's only true if he's committed to seeing all five board cards, so he can't just look at what he's calling at this one betting round. He's about a 4:1 dog to outdraw KK at the flop -- an Ace will fall about 16% of the time, and he'll flop a flush about 4% of the time -- so he can't just look at the odds he's getting for this call.

He has to look at effective odds, i.e.: how much he's likely to put into the put in order to win it. And in this case, he seems pot-committed if he hits any draw (two hearts, KQ, KT) or an Ace, so ~40% of the time he's putting in all of his chips. So he's committing to 95 + (.40 x 650) = 355, to win 870 -- what's already in the pot + the rest of his opponent's stack -- assuming his opponent will double him up every time he hits an Ace or his draw.

That's a very, very narrow to chase as at best a 2:1 underdog -- and possibly 3:1 (vs. AKs) or even 7:1 (vs. AA) -- at the risk of your entire stack, on the second hand of a SNG.

Cris

03-21-2004, 01:26 AM
[ QUOTE ]
He's about a 4:1 dog to outdraw KK at the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

You're only 4:1 when someone has an overpair to you. Anytime you have an overcard you're never 4:1 behind.

CrisBrown
03-21-2004, 02:37 AM