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t_perkin
03-09-2004, 06:41 PM
Ok here is the results from the final table:
Well I didn't take a full game report, but there was a lot of hanging on for dear life, and the 78% rule was in full force.

A random called blindpanic was looking pretty solid. He had a big stack (not sure how?) when we joined tables. But played pretty tight all the way through at the final 9.

Generally there was a few loose plays around. I remember a lot of allins on mid size pocket pairs. I will do a bit more checking later.

Doc hung on in the 3rd place for a long long time with all sorts of nasty suckouts.

When it finally got down to blindpanic and myself we both had about T13,000. I had been whinging all night about how I had gone 900 hands with no AA and KK. The first hand of heads up what should I see in front of me? AA. Poor old blindpanic has AKo and he is down and out shortly after that.

I have quite a few hands that I would like to post, but I will post them seperately.


1: t_perkin 2+2 (Akureyri), $72.00 (40%)
2: blindpanic (Snohomish), $54.00 (30%)
3: DrPhysic (San Antonio), $36.00 (20%)
4: debaser (Buckingham), $18.00 (10%)
5: MobyDick (KÝbenhavn),
6: HelmetSky (Ramat-Gan),
7: TheStrength (Penarth),
8: COON-MAN123 (homosassa springs),
9: Stone_Eyes (Bangor),
10: notaclue (Mount Vernon),
11: golfpro76 (vandalia),
12: heyrocker (Chicago),
13: Holy_Cheppa (Upton),
14: ByronKincaid (Carshalton),
15: Ruddiger (Sammamish),
16: Fahding (San Francisco),
17: Poker Jon (Chigwell),
18: ricopouy (creteil),

So it is win number two for me. Woohoo!

See you all next week

Tim

Sheriff Fatman
03-09-2004, 06:47 PM
Special mention to the non 2+2er notaclue, who's company we all enjoyed.

If you're out there, I hope you find your way to these boards. If so, please join us. You'd be very welcome.

Got a few hands to post too. Managed a few suckouts to drag myself back into it after being crippled by William earlier so it was apt that the 78% rule should do for me in the end.

As always, great fun.

Sheriff

t_perkin
03-09-2004, 07:05 PM
Down to 4

blinds 400/800 with 25 ante

debaser (2107) on the SB, blindpanic (9705 in chips) BB, I get Jh 9h UTG (2945)
, DrPhysic(12243 in chips) on the button.


Not exactly premium, but blindpanic has been just sitting back. Doc has just made himself big stack by taking out William and I have noticed he sits back a bit for a few hands after a big win /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Debaser is not so small he should be too desperate, so I figure I might steal here.

I 3 bet to 1200, just less than half my stack, maybe I should be moving in here. But personally I find people are far more willing to call someone who is all in.
I think the thing I don't like about pushing in with a steal is that it almost certainly isn't going to be done with AA KK or QQ. and probably not JJ or TT at this stage. So people with low PP seem to feel much more tempted to call.

If blindpanic reraises I would fold, because he is passive and def. too weak.
If Doc had reraised me allin I would be in a tough situation, I think I would have put him on a steal.
debaser I would as you will see call. I have him covered (just) and i just have feeling he would be putting me on a complete steal - stupid I know, but there you go.

debaser raises me all in, I call and he shows AK. I hit a 9 to keep me in and debaser out.

Just looking for some thoughts really. Should I have called? is this a compulsory call for me? should I have just pushed in straight off?


thanks

Tim

t_perkin
03-09-2004, 07:32 PM
Seat 2: t_perkin 2+2 (7618 in chips)
Seat 4: blindpanic (14238 in chips)
Seat 6: DrPhysic (5144 in chips)

blinds 400/800

Me on SB, blindp on BB

Doc min raises to 1600

I have QdTd

I reraise to 3200, probably pretty stupid, but Doc has woken up now and was looking ready to make a few steals.

Doc calls. Dammit.

flop comes: [6c 8h 8c]


That is a pretty nasty looking flop and I figure another bet might steal it, I reckon I look like PP or ATs or above.

I put him on a mid to low PP or something like JKs

There is of course the chance that he has the 66 88 or JcKc in which case he will call and I will almost certainly lose. But I reckon that this is few enough calling hands that it is worth bluffing him.

So i bet 2400 into a 6400 pot, leaving me with just 2000.

This looks like a bet from a PP to me, or possibly Axc. Or maybe I have A8s or A6s.
Either way I figure this does *not* look like AJ-AK, which is what I don't want him to put me on can call.
Moving all in here I reckon looks like AK or AQ, which he will call with PP.

Of course if he reraised me I would probably have to call, hoping to catch a Q or T and hoping he did not have 66 or 88 (TT or higher and I reckon he would move in PF).

He thought long and hard and folded.

Ok that is all pretty grabled, just want a few thoughts from people really. Mainly about -once I have decided to bluff - whether I am being stupid and I should have just pushed on the flop (as opposed to the bet I made).

thanks guys

Tim

p.s.: and of course I REALLY want to know what you actually had Doc
(it was PokerStars Game #326342718: Tournament #1158224)

t_perkin
03-09-2004, 07:51 PM
Ok here are my stats:

158 hands played and saw flop:
- 5 times out of 33 while in small blind (15%)
- 8 times out of 32 while in big blind (25%)
- 4 times out of 93 in other positions (4%)
- a total of 17 times out of 158 (10%)

Pots won at showdown - 7 out of 12 (58%)
Pots won without showdown - 24

My usual tightwad self. My pots won at showdown look a bit bad, but at least 3 or 4 of the losses were suckouts by dead people.

I am really interested to see how other peoples stats look.

Tim

William
03-09-2004, 08:19 PM
Congrats Tim /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nicely played.

DrPhysic
03-10-2004, 05:05 AM
OK, Tim. Just so you are armed to beat me the next time, (by then I'll have changed strategy again anyway):
Stats:
144 hands played and saw flop:
- 6 times out of 28 while in small blind (21%)
- 12 times out of 26 while in big blind (46%)
- 18 times out of 90 in other positions (20%)
- a total of 36 times out of 144 (25%)
Pots won at showdown - 10 out of 14 (71%)
Pots won without showdown - 28
I think the "saw flop" percentage is higher that the real number because of my much looser play once we are down 4 and 3 players.

The series of hands after the hand with Wm, I just caught a bunch of 46o, 75o, real junk. Had I had any kind of decent hand I would not have layed back. Can't get the d/l to give me the tournament hand history so I am doing that from memory. Following is from a single hand history:

In the hand you posted:
I had Ah 9c
You have no opportunity to fold unless I throw a bet on the table, so I did.
When you re-raised i had a suspicion you were on a pair of some kind. It was a nice bluff. I prob should have folded right there, but figured I had some chance of a decent flop, so I donated another 800.
Terrible flop.
When you came out betting, I am now pretty sure A high isn't good enough to throw it all on the table, so I'll survive to fight another day.

Nice bluff, Tim.
And a nice win.

Doc /images/graemlins/wink.gif

MicroBob
03-10-2004, 05:32 AM
would someone care to explain to me this whole 78% rule thing??

t_perkin
03-10-2004, 05:55 AM
It was a joke made by William originally (I think?) that ran:

At Poker Stars 78% of the time the hand which is the dog at allin will win on the river.

Basically stemming from the idea of Poker Stars being more aptly named River Stars.

We all know it is BS so it is not another pattern maps

Hope this helps. I think these 2+2 games are creating rather a lot of "in" jokes, which I don't think is very good for the forum.
I try to refrain from referencing them on the forum with the exception of posts directly related to the game.

Tim

Sheriff Fatman
03-10-2004, 06:23 AM
Tim

I'm obviously emotionally attached to this one but I was happy (and surprised) to see you flip over J9s when you called. I did somehow feel that the 78% rule was about to repay me, which proved correct.

I think I'd have called your bet even if you'd moved all in to be honest. As far as I was concerned I was the short-stack, with insufficient chips to survive 2 orbits. I needed to double up and this was as good a hand as I was likely to see to do it.

You could argue that I should stay out of it and leave it to the 2 bigger stacks to knock you out and move me up a place but I wasn't convinced it would happen (they're holding random hands, you've shown strength). I also knew that, once the blinds hit me in 2 hands time I would likely be the subject of everyone else trying to steal from me.

Really, I'm hoping that you lay down after being re-raised from outside the blinds but, even if called, I've got a good chance of winning.

Looking at it from your viewpoint I don't think I'd make the call in that situation. I certainly think you'd have laid it down if I'd passed and one of the big stacks had set you all-in. Against me, you do have the chance to knock me out and secure at least 3rd but its a risky call. You have little info on my hand but I'm unlikely to push in here with nothing given that we're close in stack size and I'm still thinking I've got a chance of scraping 3rd by staying out of trouble.

To be honest, I was just happy to have seen William bust out when I was a big favourite to have finished on the bubble. My realistic goal from the final table had already been achieved by making the money so, by that time, I was ready to gamble!

Sheriff Debaser

Bozeman
03-10-2004, 05:27 PM
"I think the thing I don't like about pushing in with a steal is that it almost certainly isn't going to be done with AA KK or QQ. and probably not JJ or TT at this stage. So people with low PP seem to feel much more tempted to call."

I think this is usually a mistake. I can see the reason for it is bp is playing very tight, but even if he is, you are almost getting odds to call, and are if he could come over the top with AK. (though $EV considerations are significant here)

A good player should recognize that you could be on a steal, but still fold because you may not be, if you are willing to also push with your big hands. and with tt,jj,qq , you definitely want ax to fold with blinds this big.

If you bet small, you open yourslef up to: 1
) people who think you are not commited to this hand, and may fold to a reraise 2) big stacks who will call 3) stop and go plays. So you are committed (barring very unusual circumstances), so I think you shouldn't encourage shots. I will often think a smaller bet represents a larger hand, but only act on it when money is deep enough to matter.

Craig