View Full Version : Mega Leak or Just Unlucky ??

03-06-2004, 12:35 AM
Am I overplaying my sets??

I have busted out of my last 3 SnGs with Set over set or worse.

Example 1: MP dealt 77 Checked to me and I bet 3xBB Button min raises and I call.

Flop: 5 7 8 rainbow I bet the pot, Button raises and I push over the top. He shows 88 that soon becomes quads /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Example #2:

Dealt 55 in LP, 3 callers to me and I limp along with the rest.

Flop comes 8 A Q, checked around

Turn Comes 5, pot bet to me and I push in. Quick call from the bettor and turns over AA for a set over set win.

Example #3: BB with T4 checked to me and I see the flop for free. Flop comes A 4 T. I bet the pot with my 2 pair. 1 caller

Turn is a 4: Again I bet the pot MP pushed in and I call to be shown AA.

The question is this: When is a set not a winner? Do I need to play more cautiously with my middle pairs that become sets fearing an over set? That seems a bit weak to me but pushing with my middle sets has cost me big.

Thanks for your input,


03-06-2004, 01:55 AM
Hiya Hotrod,

I don't think there's much way to avoid going bust on set over set. The odds of two people having pocket pairs and hitting sets are very, very small. I haven't done the math, but I'll give it a shot....

Odds of drawing a pocket pair: 13:221 or p=0.059

Odds of at least one other player at a full (9-player) table having a pocket pair: 0.96^8 = 0.15

Odds that their pocket pair is higher than yours depends on your pair, obviously, but on average = 6:13 = 0.46

Odds of hitting a set on the flop = 1:8 = 0.13

So ... odds of someone flopping a higher set when you flop a set are:

0.15 [odds someone else has a pair] * .46 [average odds their pair is higher] * 0.13 [odds of their flopping a set] = 0.00897 or, a little less than 1%.

Now, it might be a bit higher than that, because I assumed only two pocket pairs (max) at the table, and on occasion there will be three or more. On the other hand, the odds of another player flopping a set when you have also flopped a set are a bit less than the usual 1:8, because one of the three flop cards can't hit their hand (unless they have the same pocket pair you do). I'm not including board-paired sets, because those are fairly easy to read.

On the whole, I think you can probably assume that running into a bigger set won't happen more than 2% of the time. Given that, it'd be playing way against the odds to worry about a bigger set.

If one is out there, you just have to pay it off. *shrugs*


03-06-2004, 03:13 AM
I had a smiliar losing streak with sets, so I posted something about it and it became a long and interesting thread. Search for something like "are the sets worth it?", from a few months ago, in this forum.


03-06-2004, 03:27 AM
Will do that thanks.

Found it and pretty much says what I thought /images/graemlins/frown.gif. They win more often than not and if they lose they lose big. Can attest to that on both accounts

03-06-2004, 03:28 AM
They must just be unfriendly monsters under my bed /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Thanks for the reply!

03-06-2004, 02:12 PM
Isn't there a quote from a well know player that says "if you lose with a set and you dont lose big then you haven't played it right" or something like that. Can't remember who but I've always found it quite comforting when it happens to me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

La Brujita
03-06-2004, 05:34 PM
That quote is in WLLH. I also think you just had bad luck.