View Full Version : Lucky or good?

03-04-2004, 11:49 AM
Big play last night in a 2 table Stars SNG. At the time I felt a call was the right move but the more I think about the more I think this was a hand I should have gotten away from. Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

3 players left blinds at 300/600

Button has app. 7000
SB has app. 7000
I have about 10000

I post the BB and look down at 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Button raises the minimum 600
SB folds
I call (I'm pretty sure this was the right move)

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check with bottom pair and nut flush draw (not sure why I did that except that both of these players had been betting my draws for me all night and not folding when I lead out)

Button goes all in for 6000 or so.

I think briefly and call.

Button turns over AA

Turn: blank River: /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I win with the flush.

This essentially sealed the deal and I went on to win. However, the more I think the more I'm sure that this was a hand I could have gotten away from pretty easily--after all I had only voluntarily put in 600 so far. My only thought at the time was that his push meant he had a good, not great hand i.e. QQ or JJ perhaps with a heart and so I had a lot of outs.

Was this the right play or did I just get lucky?

03-04-2004, 12:12 PM
Short handed you're playing so many hands with so few people that you need to vary your play and there is much less often a "correct" answer. Often in this situation if I'm first to act I will make a bet to show some strength because it often keeps someone else from trying to bet me out of the pot, such as this instance.

However, in this case with AA and a possible flush and straight draw on the board he probably would have allin'd anyhow.

03-04-2004, 12:31 PM
I know that with the ultra tight crowd we have here your comments will be split about 50-50 between lucky and good so I will just split it myself and say...both.

You were a 56-44 dog going in against AA with that board. So, in that sense, you were lucky. You were also far from Pot committed with "only" 1200 invested in the pot at that point. I would probably have folded to the pre-flop raise but I do understand why you didn't given the circumstances. I do think the button might have made a mistake here by only raising the minimum but I expect he was wanting as much value as possible for his AA. Once the flop came giving you the nut flush draw and bottom pair I think I might have made a pot sized bet rather than checking here. But as was pointed out he would probably be going all in here anyway to protect his A's and hoping for exactly for what he got...you on a draw that you were going to call with. He got unlucky and the 4th /images/graemlins/heart.gif fell giving you the hand. You both met your expectation. He got the caller he wanted on a draw and you got the hand you wanted at the end. You were lucky, he was not.

03-04-2004, 12:51 PM
there was 2700 preflop, plus 6000 to you, makes for 8700:6000 odds, or 1.45:1. With 11 outs you had a 41.7% chance of making your hand with two cards to come*.

0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = -230.1

so you had a "slightly" negative EV on the hand. It was a coin flip essentially, something you should generally avoid for all your chips unless you are getting a decent overlay, which you were not.

That should answer your question.


* from the chart in HPFAP. The two dimes anaysis gave these results:

pokenum -h ac as - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 554 55.96 427 43.13 9 0.91 0.564
7c Ah 427 43.13 554 55.96 9 0.91 0.436

Using 43.6% instead of 41.7% it would probably be very close to 0 EV.

03-04-2004, 12:55 PM
what if it were QQ, KQ, KJ,QJ. meaning he had 3 extra outs with his ace. its hard to predict AA here.

03-04-2004, 12:56 PM
Note that without the pair of sevens, and thus two more outs to three sevens, he would have been a bigger dog, and if you plug that into my analysis he would have been much more -EV.

Also note your 56:44 is almost identical to the chart in HPFAP's #s and the twodimes.net analysis, a coinflip with a slight disadvantage.


03-04-2004, 01:04 PM
ok let's find out some other possibilities:

giving his opponent QQ:

pokenum -h qc qs - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 485 48.99 505 51.01 0 0.00 0.490
7c Ah 505 51.01 485 48.99 0 0.00 0.510

giving his opponent QJ:

pokenum -h qc js - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Qc 284 28.69 706 71.31 0 0.00 0.287
7c Ah 706 71.31 284 28.69 0 0.00 0.713

giving his opponent KK:

pokenum -h kc ks - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 698 70.51 292 29.49 0 0.00 0.705
7c Ah 292 29.49 698 70.51 0 0.00 0.295

giving his opponent Kh Js:

pokenum -h kc js - ah 7c -- 7h th kh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Kc 482 48.69 508 51.31 0 0.00 0.487
7c Ah 508 51.31 482 48.69 0 0.00 0.513

you can plug in the numbers to the equation if you like. The inferences should be self-evident.


03-04-2004, 01:06 PM
One thing I didn't mention was that betting out from the blind on that pot would not be a bad idea. His opponent might fold, but if he calls, you have outs. If his opponent raised, he'd more clearly have the odds to call with the draw, rather than as it played, calling 6000 cold.


03-04-2004, 01:12 PM
outcome definately lucky. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif at best you were slightly ahead. not worht all your chips. but thats ok, someones gotta play allin for a flush or else i wouldnt bust out early half the time :P

03-04-2004, 01:20 PM
I don't see any reason to say you would have folded pre-flop with A7o 3 handed to a minimum raise from the button??Granted you're going to be playing out of position, but come on, it's three handed and the fact that button raised tells you (especially if he's aggressive) very little. Unless he's been raising bigger in these situations previously in which case maybe he's looking for action on a monster. Still a 600 call for a pot of 2100 is automatic in my opinion. A8-AA are the only had you don't have proper pot odds to see a flop against...

03-04-2004, 02:21 PM
Thanks for all the responses. They essentially confirmed what I was thinking.

Al you are right. At a minimum there is no way I should have called 6000 cold. I probably should have bet that flop. A strong bet here and he might have folded to a potential made flush.

Thanks again.

Prickly Pete
03-04-2004, 05:22 PM
Al, I think your abacus is a little off. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = -230.1

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that should read:

0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = + 129.9

And it's only 5800 to call, not 6000. Plus as you showed, he actually had a 43.6% winrate, meaning his EV was better than that. Furthermore, AA is certainly one of the strongest holdings his oppenent can have here. An allin bet with KJ, JJ or the like is very possible, making the A7 the favorite.

I agree that he should probably bet the flop, but given the situation, I believe he has to call.

03-04-2004, 06:16 PM
oops I think I pulled a dyslexia and put 3267 into the calculator instead of 3627. Or something like that.

Oh well, it didn't make much of a difference in the final analysis.

The second post where I listed possible hands his opponent might hold gave a flavor for the range of possible outcomes, tho of course my list was far from comprehensive or a weighted average of the possibilities.


03-04-2004, 06:37 PM
Ok, everyone is going to tell you to fold this. However, you are only a big dog to a set or a flopped flush. I don't think most people would go all in with either of those hands after you check it. So I think it is pretty obvious you are not a big dog.

BUT, you are not a big favorite against most of the hands that he would push in with, v. QQ you should be something like 51:49 or so and should be a small dog to something like AK (not sure about that though, haven't done the sim).

So, are you willing to take pretty good pot odds on a hand that you probably have that small an edge, given the circumstances you were in? That is the question you need(ed) to answer.

The question I need YOU to answer is far more important and it is this:


Prickly Pete
03-04-2004, 07:05 PM

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you Moon for asking the important stuff.

As for the decision, I'd also remind folks that when the payout is 50-30-20, taking that close call 3-way ain't such a bad idea.

03-04-2004, 07:30 PM
I'd also remind folks that when the payout is 50-30-20, taking that close call 3-way ain't such a bad idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that's a common notion here, but I'm still not completely convinced it's true, especially if you're the big-stack, and you believe you're better than the other 2, i.e., you know you can push them off pots with aggressiveness, or outplay them post-flop. Can you please explain why am I wrong, and how does prize-structure exactly affect this? (since I would have guessed that if the structure was 70-30-10, or closer to a winner takes all, *that's* where strictly +EV decisions are more important).